FXUS61 KBUF 181116 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 716 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms (3 of 5) covers the entire forecast area today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Canadian wildfire smoke will continue to cause poor air quality today. 2) Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through this evening, with numerous severe thunderstorms able to produce damaging winds and locally heavy rain. 3) Gusty winds are expected northeast of Lake Erie this afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Canadian wildfire smoke will continue to cause poor air quality today. Smoke from Canadian wildfires extends into western NY this morning. A warm front will move across the region today, and smoke will lift back northward. Based on the latest HRRR and REFS, surface smoke is expected to improve across western NY late this morning through afternoon, and by evening across north-central NY. Air Quality Alerts remain in effect today. Key Message 2...Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through this evening, with numerous severe thunderstorms able to produce damaging winds and locally heavy rain. WV imagery shows a potent shortwave trough digging into the Upper Great Lakes region this morning. The trough will continue to dig into the Lower Great Lakes region, with a surface low deepening as it moves from Lake Superior to Quebec today. Isentropic lift and moisture advection ahead of a warm front has led to showers across the Lake Ontario region this morning. A few thunderstorms can't be ruled out in this activity. The warm front will move across the region this morning. A tight moisture gradient and elevated instability will support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across western NY, mainly staying south of I-90 through mid-morning. The chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will increase east of Lake Ontario with the warm front late this morning. There will be some dry time across western NY mid/late morning. The region will be get into the warm sector with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s today. The surface low will pass by to the north while an associated cold front drops south across the region late this afternoon through this evening. A favorable set-up for severe weather is expected across the forecast area today. While smoke will linger today, heating within a moist airmass will result in destabilization. The wind field will strengthen ahead of the cold front resulting in 30-40knots of 0-6km shear. A broken line of storms is expected to form on a pre-frontal trough or differential heating boundaries as early as noon, with a secondary line of convection with the front between 2pm-8pm. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today with damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and an isolated tornado as the main threats. The SPC has issued a Enhanced Risk (3 of 5) of severe thunderstorms. The threat for thunderstorms will come to an end behind the cold front tonight. A few showers may linger into Sunday morning. Key Message 3...Gusty winds are expected northeast of Lake Erie this afternoon. The pressure gradient ahead of the surface low and cold front will tighten and southwest winds will increase across the region. A 30-40 knot low level jet will move overhead. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected this afternoon, with the strongest wind gusts northeast of Lake Erie. A few gusts of up to 40 mph area possible northeast of Lake Erie. The timing of the strongest wind gusts outside of thunderstorms is noon-4PM. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Smoke and numerous thunderstorms will bring flight restrictions to western and north-central NY through this evening. A plume of smoke from Canadian wildfires extends into the Lake Erie region this morning. The area of smoke will lift northward as winds increase from the southwest today. Visibility is expected to fall to MVFR in smoke, however a brief period of IFR can't be ruled out. An area of low pressure is expected to move north of the region today. A warm front will lift northward and chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase across western NY this morning. A brief period of MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms, as well as smoke through late morning. A southwest wind will increase across the region behind the warm front today, and wind gusts of 25-35 knots are expected, with the highest gusts northeast of Lake Erie. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front this afternoon through this evening. Some storms may become severe with strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. The timing of the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected between 18-00z. Showers will linger across the Finger Lakes region into the evening with MVFR conditions across the higher terrain overnight. VFR conditions are expected across the lower elevations tonight. Outlook... Sunday and Monday...Fair weather and VFR expected. Lingering smoke possible. Monday night and Tuesday...Restrictions likely in periodic showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday...Restrictions possible with Lingering showers. && .MARINE... Smoke from Canadian wildfires will result in periods of reduced visibility on the lower Great Lakes through Saturday. A warm front will pass across the lower Great Lakes this morning with south-southwest winds freshening to 15-20 knots. Waves will build to 3 to 6 feet today. A cold front will move across the region this afternoon with west and northwest winds developing behind it, with small craft conditions developing on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Small craft conditions will come to an end of Lake Erie this evening, while continuing on Lake Ontario through tonight. Thunderstorms chances will increase starting this morning with the warm front. Additional rounds of thunderstorms are expected today as a cold front moves through. High pressure builds in Sunday and persists through Monday with winds and waves subsiding. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001>008- 010>014-019>021-085. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ010-019- 085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ045. && $$ DISCUSSION...HSK AVIATION...HSK MARINE...HSK/TMA