FXUS61 KRNK 181437

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

1037 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Adjusted PoPs based on latest radar/satellite and high-res model

trends. In essence, still think coverage will be more scattered

but there will be bands of storms especially along the Blue

Ridge by early afternoon into the central VA Piedmont.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Strong to severe showers and thunderstorms today with 

additional chances for daily thunderstorms through mid week.



2) One more day of very warm weather, then temperatures begin 

to moderate. Smoke also lessens beginning today.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe showers and thunderstorms today 

with additional chances for daily thunderstorms through mid 

week.



12z RNK soundings showed fairly unstable airmass with SBCAPE of

over 1300 J/kg. PWATS are running a little lower (1.29")

compared to model/mesoscale analysis.



Still thinking strong/severe storms will be more of a concern

this afternoon/evening than flooding as storm motion will run

15-25 mph. Some training possible.



Still looking at moderately to strongly unstable airmass later 

today (1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). Severe parameters point to the

central VA Piedmont into the Shenandoah Valley as having better

threat of damaging winds compared to the southwest VA/NW NC

mountains.



Prior to the storms, temperatures should reach the lower to mid

90s east of the mountains, with 80s in the west. 



Any smoke/haze should erode or shift east once the storms 

develop and mix out the particulates.



Previous discussion...



Ridging aloft and at the surface continued to weaken as

troughing gradually replaced it aloft. Currently a short wave 

traveling clockwise around the Bermuda high pressure center was 

sustaining relatively strong storms near the VA/TN border. A few

of the smaller cells had worked their way into the western 

mountains. CAMs show this activity moving into SE WV eventually 

and weakening towards morning. 



Increasing cyclonic flow aloft along with lee troughing will

interact with strong heating and dew points in the upper 60s/ 

lower 70s to produce more showers and thunderstorms, especially 

from noon on into the evening. Given the temperatures and

moisture, instability will be moderate, however shear will be

relatively weak and storm mode is expected to be clusters and a 

few broken line segments moving east-southeast around 20 kts. 

Convection continues off and on through the overnight hours at 

which point a cold front finally moves into the region. This 

feature along with lee troughing will foster additional

convection Sunday. As drier air works in from the north,

convection will sink south. For both days, but especially

Saturday given the upper level support, numerous storms may

become strong to severe, with downbursts the main concern. 

Heavy rain leading to flash flooding will also be possible.



Monday through Wednesday we will see additional chances for  

afternoon showers and storms, with another front likely pushing 

through Wednesday. 



KEY MESSAGE 2...One more day of very warm weather, then

temperatures begin to moderate. Smoke also lessens beginning 

today. 



Still may see smoke around from Canadian wildfires today, but

this will move out of the area by this evening as the upper 

flow shifts. Temperatures too will be cooler after one more day 

of 90+ degree heat along and east of the Blue Ridge. Most days 

this week will be in the 70s and 80s for the mountains and the 

80s or low 90s for the Piedmont (after today). Heat index values

stay shy of advisory criteria once again today.



&&



.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Showers and storms should develop after 11 AM today and 

continue into tonight before weakening...with a few additionalshowers for BLF and LWB overnight. Heavy downpours may bring 

MVFR or lower conditions today and tonight, while sub-MVFR 

stratus and fog are also possible in the overnight tonight into 

Sunday morning. Smoke may continue to impact Roanoke, Danville, 

and Lynchburg today before shifting east. 





OUTLOOK SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 

Daily convection will bring MVFR or briefly lower conditions 

each day through Wednesday. Mountain valley fog/low stratus will

also be possible each morning. A westerly wind with speeds 

between 6 and 12 kts will continue Sunday, with occasional gusts

as high as 25 kts for the mountains behind a frontal passage.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...SH/WP

AVIATION...SH