FXUS62 KTAE 181336 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 936 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 922 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 - There is a 30% chance for tropical development over the northeast Gulf over the weekend into early next week. It remains too early to determine specific impacts, although heavy rain appears likely in Florida. Please check future updates at hurricanes.gov as the tropical weather outlook is issued four times a day at 2 AM and PM and 8 AM and PM. - There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall the next couple of days, mainly in our Florida counties. Do not drive through flooded roadways. && .UPDATE... Issued at 922 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Minor tweaks made to the ongoing forecast this morning. Updated the T, Td, RH, Sky and Wind grids to reflect current trends. Otherwise, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon. Additionally, all eyes remain in the Gulf to see how the cluster of storms evolve with time. Stay alert to changing forecasts. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Our attention is on the eastern Gulf this weekend into early next week. A broad upper-low over the eastern Gulf will pinwheel several rounds of showers and thunderstorms this weekend, regardless of tropical development. As such, rain chances remain elevated through at least Tuesday. Beyond that depends on whether a surface low is able to form and consolidate into something tropical in the northeastern Gulf. Temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 90s for highs in the afternoons with middle to upper 70s for lows. As the 00Z guidance is coming in, there has been a noticeable trend in the global models to keep the H85 and H5 vorticity over the Gulf waters. This is somewhat thanks to the band of strong to severe thunderstorms that raked the Forgotten Coast Friday evening. The vorticity from that appears to help nudge the broad H5 low over the Gulf, allowing for possible tropical development late tonight into Sunday. As of 2 AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has a low 30% chance of development over the next 7 days and a low 10% chance over the next 48 hours. Something we'll also have to monitor is the potential for whatever develops stalling in the northeastern Gulf. This is thanks to a broad H5 ridge over Colorado and another one in the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, the H5 trough is forecast to be well north over the Great Lakes. In essence, there's not a whole lot to steer this system one way or another as the two ridge fight for control. The reason this is important is because areas near, and especially south and east, the system could see the rain totals really pile up. Either way, locally heavy rain is a concern with 1" to 3" forecast for much of the region with higher totals of 5" or more possible, especially for the Florida Big Bend. Even higher totals would be possible if a tropical system were to develop and then stall over the northeastern Gulf, which some ensembles are hinting at. Again, we're closely monitoring things in the eastern Gulf over the coming days. While odds are low for tropical development as of 2 AM this morning, it would behoove everyone to regularly check back for updates through the weekend and pay particular attention to trends in the tropical weather outlook. && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail this morning. For this afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop with the most likely areas to see storms around TLH and ECP. VFR is expected outside of storms. &&.MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 A broad surface low will attempt to form in the eastern Gulf over the weekend, which is being monitored for possible tropical development. Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds are forecast through the weekend. If a system does develop, wind speeds and seas could increase considerably over what is indicated in the forecast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast over the weekend into early next week and should limit fire weather concerns through at least Tuesday. Good to excellent dispersions are forecast across for our central timezone districts today. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to pinwheel around a broad area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf, regardless of tropical development. Precipitable water values (PWATs) in excess of 2" means any showers and storms over the weekend could easily produce a quick 1" to 2" of rain with each storm. All told, 1" to 3" of rain is forecast across much of the area, with locally higher amounts exceeding 5" possible, especially across the Florida Big Bend. As such, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall through at least Tuesday. Rivers from the Aucilla River eastward are relatively low, and with the latest rainfall forecast, amounts are not sufficient to lead to river flooding. From the Ochlockonee River Basin westward, rivers are more susceptible to flooding, should significant rainfall occur. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 93 74 91 74 / 60 30 50 30 Panama City 93 76 91 76 / 70 60 50 30 Dothan 94 73 92 73 / 50 50 50 30 Albany 94 73 93 74 / 50 40 50 20 Valdosta 94 73 92 73 / 50 10 30 10 Cross City 93 73 90 73 / 30 40 60 60 Apalachicola 89 77 88 77 / 60 50 60 60 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Reese