FXUS63 KDDC 181615

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

1115 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Below normal temperatures continue today with highs in the low

  to mid 90s amidst light southerly winds.



- Little change to the forecast for Sunday, with afternoon highs

  rising by a degree or two.



- Temperatures warm to near/above normal Monday through the end

  of the week, with some hope for precipitation across our

  northern zones starting Wednesday evening.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026



Late morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air 

analysis reveal longwave ridging is in place atop the majority of 

the CONUS, leading to a rather nebulous surface pressure field 

across the central plains. Despite modest large scale subsidence, 

short range ensembles suggest 850-mb warming will be on the order of 

1 degree C, which will translate to afternoon temperatures nudging 

upward with highs in the low to mid 90s. Similar to the previous 

several days, strong solar insolation will promote deep boundary 

layer mixing by mid-afternoon, which may promote isolated light to 

moderate rain showers favoring the eastern half of our area where 

moisture quality is slightly better. With no upper level support and 

meager instability, this activity will pose little more threat than 

a few lightning strikes. Tonight, light winds and mostly clear skies 

will foster Sunday morning lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s.



Rinse and repeat the forecast for Sunday, as no change in the 

synoptic pattern results in another ~1 degree C of warming at 850-mb 

and afternoon highs at the surface increasing by another degree or 

two. Likewise, strong insolation will engender the same isolated 

light to moderate rain showers that pose only a severely limited 

lightning threat.



Monday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree 

the upper ridge will shift slightly southeastward such that 

southwest KS will be nearly or directly under its core. This subtle 

pattern change will not have profound implications for the sensible 

weather across the central plains, however it will promote stronger 

subsidence aloft which will manifest in afternoon temperatures 

warming closer to normal with highs in the mid to upper 90s. 

Additionally, as the core of the ridge reaches near the central and 

southern plains interface, westerly flow across the central Rockies 

will re-establish, inducing lee troughing to return and allowing 

southerly winds over our area to increase. As for precipitation 

chances, the bulk of southwest KS will remain dry through the end of 

the week, although weak disturbances diving southeast on the eastern 

periphery of the upper ridge may support precipitation clipping our 

northern zones by mid-week. That said, confidence is very low.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026



VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Winds

will remain light and variable through 18Z Sunday.



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Springer

AVIATION...Springer