FXUS63 KSGF 181100

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

600 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will occur today and

  Sunday. The greatest coverage will be on Sunday across central

  Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. 

  

- Hot and humid conditions build across the area Sunday through

  Tuesday. Maximum afternoon heat index values will approach

  100-108 degrees.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 132 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026



Synoptic Overview:



Broad ridging persists aloft today with surface high pressure

across the Gulf coast producing continued warm, humid 

conditions across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. 



Isolated Showers and Storms Today:



Models show a weak cap persisting through much of the day and

much of the area today, which will limit the overall coverage.

Above the cap, long and skinny thermo profiles may support

isolated convective initiation and storms capable of producing

lightning and brief heavy downpours. Much of the forecast area

will remain dry, however, and PoPs are limited to 20%. 

A weak northwest to southeast oriented cold front will stall 

somewhere across northern and central Missouri tonight, and a 

few models depict isolated elevated convection lingering along

this boundary.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 132 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026



Scattered Storms Linger into Sunday:



The aforementioned cold front will remain stalled from northern

to southeastern Missouri on Sunday. Diurnal heating may act to

reinvigorate convection along this boundary in the afternoon.

Precipitation chances are their relative highest across central

Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, where 30-50% PoPs exist. 



Heat Builds Early Next Week:



Forecast temperatures tick up each day Sunday through Tuesday

as the ridge axis shifts to the east. With a continued moist and

humid airmass, heat index values will start to approach Heat 

Advisory criteria. Looking at forecast soundings, it's possible 

NBM is overdoing temperatures and/or dew points slightly by 

undercooking the mixing potential. With current forecast maximum

heat indices in the 100-108 degree range (marginal advisory 

criteria), confidence was too low to issue any headlines at this

point. 



Seasonable Temperatures Return Mid-week:



Global ensembles depict fairly good agreement in dropping an

upper-level low out of eastern Canada and into the northeastern

CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday, which will act to bring a cold

front through the Missouri Ozarks. More seasonable temperatures

and a drier airmass will move in behind the front, resulting in

more pleasant feeling conditions and very low precipitation

chances (<20%).



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... 

Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026



VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. An isolated

shower or two will be possible throughout the day, but coverage

is expected to limited, precluding any mention in the initial

issuance. The probability of lightning is likewise low but

nonzero. 



Winds will prevail out of the south-southwest, occasionally

gusting to around 15 to 18 kt during the daylight hours. 



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Didio

LONG TERM...Didio

AVIATION...Didio