FXUS64 KLCH 181126 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 626 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure building into the region through early next week will keep precipitation chances negligible through the middle of next week. - Very hot temperatures are expected this weekend with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices between 102 and 112F. A Heat Advisory or Warning may become necessary during the afternoons through beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Friday) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 Surface high pressure extends across the west / central Gulf Coast and Southern Plains. To offer some brief tropical situational awareness, there is a tropical disturbance extending west of the Florida Peninsula. However regardless of any further development, if any, upper level flow currently will not allow the feature to impact the local Southeast TX and Southwest LA region. Our focus right now is the increasing concern for heat related impacts amid this dry forecast. Last night's 18th/00Z sounding illustrates fairly dry midlevels which will limit growth of cumulus through the tropospheric column today. As upper level ridging expands southward into the Southern Plains Sunday temperatures further increase in the mid 90s. Combined with the humidity, a heat advisory may be issued in the next forecast package or two where locations meet criteria. Basis this package, daily max temperatures will continue warming into the midweek Wednesday through upper 90s to near 100F. Those who work long periods outdoors or facilitate outdoor activities during the daylight hours are strongly encouraged to have plenty of hydration and frequent breaks from the heat to minimize potential for any heat related illnesses. Light winds through the middle of the week will range south to west-southwest, thus little relief will come from these shallow breezes. Toward the end of the forecast range Thursday and Friday, a weak front will begin to develop across the Plains and sink southward. Guidance is fickle with confidence on any rainfall, however, provided there is some weak forcing available, some brief seabreeze activity or garden variety pop up showers may occur. At this time, chances remain too low to be included in the forecast. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Patchy, very shallow ground fog likely only a few feet off the ground may intermittently lower visibilities until 13Z. Ridging both at the surface and aloft will maintain VFR conditions thereafter through the day along with light southwesterly winds. SCT to BKN high clouds will continue to stream across the area through the day. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 Light southerly to westerly flow and low seas are expected to continue through the forecast period with weak surface high pressure meandering about. Mainly dry conditions are expected to prevail as high pressure builds overhead. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 Light southerly to westerly winds will prevail through the week and weekend, keeping dewpoints in the 70s and minimum RH values in the 50 to 65 percent range. Ridging will build across the northern Gulf through early next week, dropping rain chances to near zero. While this drier airmass will lower afternoon RH values into the 40 to 50 percent range early next week, no significant fire weather concerns are expected. However the drier airmass will not be "dry" enough to escape heat hazards. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30 AVIATION...66