FXUS64 KMEG 181357 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 857 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 856 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect for Saturday. Heat indices will peak between 105 and 108 F. Those without access to adequate cooling or air conditioning will be the most vulnerable. - High heat will ramp up early next week with highs reaching into the mid to upper 90s. Heat headlines are likely both Monday and Tuesday. - Many areas will see dry conditions next week; however, isolated afternoon showers and storms can not be ruled out each day as peak daytime heating occurs. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 856 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The Mid-South will shift into a northwest flow regime this weekend as a subtropical ridge builds over the western Gulf and a tropical disturbance emerges over the Florida peninsula. Weaknesses within the aforementioned ridge will keep rain chances in the forecast both Saturday and Sunday. The greatest chance for precipitation will exist in areas near the Tennessee River. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s. The NBM continues to paint areas of 105 degree heat indices within the Mid-South both Saturday and Sunday. However, nearly all ensemble guidance keeps apparent temperatures below this threshold, negating the need for a Heat Advisory. There are no plans at this time for any heat headlines this weekend, but we will continue to evaluate as more data becomes available. Early next week will experience significant warming as the subtropical ridge centers over the Mid-South. GEFS, GEPS, and ENS solutions are in agreement with temperatures reaching the upper 90s by Tuesday afternoon. At this time, there is high confidence that heat headlines will be needed Monday and Tuesday with the potential for Extreme Heat Warnings along and west of the Mississippi River. Our advice for those that must be outside during this time is to hydrate frequently and take plenty of breaks. Heat remains the number one cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States, so stay informed and learn the signs of heat illness. By midweek, guidance continues to bring a cold front into the Mid- South. However, forecast uncertainty remains due to ensembles struggling with the precise placement of the parent low pressure system. If this disturbance treks more northerly, the Mid-South will experience minimal relief with highs only decreasing to the mid 90s through the end of the work week. The cooler option will manifest if the upper low treks over Lakes Erie and Ontario. This will produce highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Due to these inconsistencies, the NBM continues to exhibit a 7 degree spread amongst the 25th and 75th percentiles for the middle to end of next week. Regardless of which solution occurs, temperatures will remain warm with minimal rain chances. ANS && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 VFR conditions prevail across all terminals. Removed convective mentions for JBR and MKL as probabilities remain below 30%. Expect westerly winds to persist through the period, becoming light and variable after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 856 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Fire weather concerns are not anticipated as ample moisture remains over the Mid-South and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058. MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115. MS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010-011-020. TN...None. &&$$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...JDS