FXUS64 KOHX 181104

AFDOHX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Nashville TN

604 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 600 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026



- Daily rounds of storms will continue through the weekend. Heavy

  rain resulting in flash-flooding is going to be the main impact,

  although some strong wind gusts are also possible.



- Heat indices will reach the low 100s west of the Cumberland

  Plateau into early next week. Tuesday will be the hottest day of

  the period with heat indices nearing or exceeding 105 degrees.



- Slightly cooler and less humid air is expected from Wednesday

  onward.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight through Sunday Night)

Issued at 1053 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026



Earlier convection has mostly vanished and all flash flood 

warnings have either expired or been canceled. High pressure 

remains the dominant feature at the surface and aloft, but we'll 

start to see the high pressure break down during the weekend as a 

weak shortwave looks to develop aloft and a surface boundary slips

through the region late Saturday night or Sunday. In the 

meantime, the air mass across Middle Tennessee remains unchanged: 

highly unstable with near-record precipitable water values, but

weakly- sheared with weak mid-level lapse rates. When coupled with

a weak wind field aloft, it makes for the perfect recipe for

flash- flooding, with high rainfall rates coming from slow-moving

cells. Expect more of the same on Saturday, more so in areas east

of I-65, and again Sunday across all of Middle Tennessee. 

Meanwhile, temperatures will remain a little above seasonal norms,

but the humidity will help send heat indices into the low 100s 

most areas west of the Cumberland Plateau through the weekend. 

There is a marginal risk of severe storms days 1-3 for portions of

eastern Middle Tennessee, but the primary risk is going to 

continue to be flash-flooding.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Monday through next Saturday)

Issued at 1053 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026



Starting on Monday, somewhat drier air will trickle into the mid

state, resulting in lower PoPs and lower QPF, although heat

indices will remain elevated. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day,

as afternoon temperatures reach the mid 90s in many areas, and

heat indices similarly reach 105 or better. It is possible that a

Heat Advisory will be needed on Tuesday. A second surface boundary

will come through Middle Tennessee Tuesday night or early

Wednesday, and this will end the heat threat by bringing in cooler

temperatures and also lower humidity.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026



A muggy, unsettled pattern will continue with mainly diurnal

scattered showers and storms and patchy fog/stratus at night.

Outside any storms, VFR conditions will prevail for the daytime 

hours. Winds will be WNW, mostly less than 10KT. Locations most

likely to experience impacts from scattered storms today and cig/vsby

reductions tonight will be SRB/CSV. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Nashville      94  75  91  74 /  20  30  70  20 

Clarksville    92  74  91  73 /  20  30  60  20 

Crossville     87  69  85  68 /  50  30  70  20 

Columbia       94  73  91  72 /  30  20  60  20 

Cookeville     88  71  86  70 /  50  40  70  20 

Jamestown      89  70  85  68 /  50  40  70  20 

Lawrenceburg   91  72  90  71 /  30  20  60  30 

Murfreesboro   94  74  92  73 /  30  30  70  30 

Waverly        92  74  91  72 /  20  30  60  10 



&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Rose

LONG TERM....Rose

AVIATION.....13