FXUS65 KFGZ 181124

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

424 AM MST Sat Jul 18 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Deep monsoon moisture will remain over the area 

through the weekend and well into next week. With this moisture 

comes the daily threat of thunderstorms, along with the risk for 

locally heavy rainfall and flooding. With the added moisture and 

cloud cover, daytime temperatures will remain below normal.



&&



.DISCUSSION...We are locked in a pattern that shows no signs of 

changing and considering how badly the region needs water, this is 

largely a good thing. The region will remain in a very moist air 

mass, even with respect to the Monsoon Season, with both PW and 

surface dew point values about as high as is possible. Northeast 

through easterly steering flow will also persist, at least into 

early next week. This steering flow may transition to more of a 

southeasterly direction later next week, but there are so many 

variables in play, it's hard to know for sure.



The current steering flow heavily favors locations just to the 

southwest, south and west of the central Mogollon Rim. A secondary 

area usually forms later each day across Apache and Navajo counties 

or over western New Mexico. These secondary areas are what supports 

nocturnal convection, but tonight is quiet, mainly due to the lack 

of well-defined outflows. One of the "problems" with a saturated air 

mass is that organized outflows no longer form and we end up with a 

less organized environment.



Despite all the favorable mechanisms to produce heavy rain, we are 

also seeing large areas of rain-cooled air, rain-cooled ground and 

extensive debris cloud cover each day/night. These factors can 

prevent stronger and more widespread convection from forming and 

therefore limit the amount of storms that can produce Flash 

Flooding.



This and the lack of any clear forcing mechanism will keep FFA 

issuances away for another day, at least. By early next week, an 

easterly wave may improve shear and storm motion, potentially 

raising the risk for Flash Flooding and hail production.



&&



.AVIATION...Saturday 18/12Z through Sunday 19/12Z...Expect SCT-NMRS 

SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA through the period, storms most numerous 

in the afternoon hours. Any stronger storms will produce brief MVFR 

and IFR. Some IFR low clouds and BR possible, mainly for overnight 

hours. Outside of storms, sfc winds are not anticipated to affect 

flight operations.



OUTLOOK...Sunday 19/12Z through Tuesday 21/12Z...Expect SCT-NMRS 

SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA through the period, storms most numerous 

in the afternoon hours. Any stronger storms will produce brief MVFR 

and IFR. Some IFR low clouds and BR possible, mainly for overnight 

hours. Outside of storms, sfc winds are not anticipated to affect 

flight operations.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Expect a medium to high grade 

monsoon environment, with generally light winds outside of outflow 

and thunderstorm activity. Most storms will produce wetting rain 

with stronger storms producing localized Flash Flooding.



Monday through Wednesday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms 

continue, generally light winds outside of outflow and thunderstorm 

activity. Most storms will produce wetting rain with stronger storms 

producing localized Flash Flooding.



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.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Peterson

AVIATION...Peterson

FIRE WEATHER...Peterson



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