FXUS65 KSLC 181239

AFDSLC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT

639 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026



.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1118 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026...





- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop

  again across portions of central, southern, and northeast UT,

  along with southwest WY each afternoon with monsoonal moisture

  in place.

 

- The risk for flash flooding exists across the majority of the

  forecast area, highlighted by WPC with a Marginal Risk (1/4) of

  exceeding flash flood guidance each day through Tuesday 

  encompassing nearly all of UT. A Slight Risk (2/4) of exceeding 

  flash flood guidance exists across southern UT Saturday. 



- A Flood Watch for flash flooding remains in effect for portions

  of southern UT for Saturday afternoon and evening.

 

&&



.DISCUSSION, Issued 1118 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026...

Deep monsoonal moisture will remain in place across

the area through at least the middle of next week, leading to 

daily, mostly diurnal, scattered to numerous showers and 

thunderstorms. Lingering isolated to scattered showers and 

thunderstorms this evening will continue to gradually diminish 

overnight. Still not looking at any appreciable forcing 

mechanisms through the weekend, so for Saturday and Sunday, it 

will be pretty much rinse and repeat, with convection developing 

initially over the higher terrain, then propagate along cold pools

and instability gradients. PWATs are forecast to decrease 

slightly for Sunday, but this will be brief with moisture 

increasing again for Monday. This will have little effect on 

convective coverage, as the low levels remain amply moist.



Global models are hinting at some increasing but subtle vort max 

activity during the Monday through Wednesday timeframe, which 

could result in more widespread heavy rain which will also be 

spreading more into northern Utah. Thereafter, global models are 

also suggesting a potential drying trend for the second half of 

next week. This will not be enough to end the diurnal convection, 

but coverage may decrease towards the end of next week as a 

result. 







&&



.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions are expected over the KSLC 

terminal through the TAF period alongside showers and isolated 

thunderstorm development over the nearby high terrain. Diurnally 

driven winds are expected throughout the day, with southerly 

drainage winds holding strong through 17Z, transitioning to a 

northerly wind around 18Z. There is around a 30% chance for erratic 

outflow winds to impact the airfield between 21-01Z.



REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and 

thunderstorms will continue across the southern half of the area 

today, with more isolated coverage across the northern area. Storms 

producing heavy rainfall may drop VIS to MVFR thresholds. Across the 

northern portion of the airspace, storms will be capable of 

producing gusty and erratic outflow winds to 30 kts throughout the 

afternoon. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will become more 

isolated through the evening. Outside of any outflow winds, 

anticipate diurnally driven flows across all terminals.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 414 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026...

Anomalous moisture remains in place over Utah today, and

will continue to do so through the weekend and into at least the 

middle of next week. As this moisture remains in place, anticipate

shower and thunderstorm development over the high terrain across 

the state, with the greatest coverage of activity expected through

the high terrain running parallel with I-15. Each afternoon at 

around 1200-1300, showers are expected to develop into scattered 

thunderstorms, introducing the daily risk of frequent lightning, 

heavy rainfall, and gusty outflow winds. Humidity will remain 

relatively high both during the afternoonhours and overnight. For

Saturday and Sunday, the areas expected to be the driest will be 

across Utah's West Desert, where values may drop to as low as 15 

to 20 percent. Given the weak flow under the overhead weather 

pattern, light terrain driven winds are expected to dominate 

outside of any outflow winds.



&&



.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UT...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for 

     UTZ122>128.



WY...None.

&&



$$



PUBLIC...Cheng

AVIATION...Webber

FIRE WEATHER...Webber



For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...

http://weather.gov/saltlakecity