FXUS65 KVEF 181118 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 418 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Abundant moisture will remain over the Desert Southwest into next week, with daily rounds of monsoon thunderstorms. * Seasonably hot temperatures will persist with unusually warm overnight lows due to moisture and cloud cover. && .DISCUSSION... Deep monsoonal moisture will remain in place into next week with PWATs generally ranging from >1.50" south of I-15 with readings ~1.00-1.50" to the north. Friday was quite active across southern Mohave, southern Clark, and eastern San Bernardino counties with some locations around Kingman and the lower Colorado River Valley seeing over 2.00" of rain from some storms. With no real forcing to generate thunderstorms, we will once again rely of daytime heating on Saturday for storms to develop. Overall, it looks like Saturday will see an overall decrease in thunderstorm coverage, but they are still expected to form over the higher terrain, potentially moving into the lower valleys. The greatest coverage of storms looks to remain across Mohave and eastern Lincoln counties. Strong gusty winds will be possible with some of the stronger storms, but intense rain will certainly be possible leading to isolated areas of flash flooding, especially since winds through 500mb will remain fairly light leading to slower moving storms. Daily afternoon thunderstorms will likely occur through early next week with the high terrain seeing the greatest coverage. Medium- range ensembles indicate a weak inverted trough may result in a period of greater shower and thunderstorm activity mid to late next week, though confidence in the timing/placement of this feature is very low. We will continue to monitor trends as the time draws closer. Be especially mindful if you have any outdoor activities planned over the next week or so as thunderstorms will remain in the forecast. Afternoon high temperatures will generally remain right around climatological normals. However, given the potential for increased overnight cloud cover and abundant atmospheric moisture, the air will struggle to cool down overnight. This will result in some elevated heat risk potential, especially in the hotter spots, including Death Valley. Remain hydrated and avoid being outdoors during the hottest time of the afternoon. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Lower chances and coverage with afternoon convection this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may develop on the terrain in southern Nevada and impacts are possible at the terminals, but confidence is too low to include at the moment. Light winds this morning will become east to southeast this afternoon but remain under 8KT. A period of elevated south winds is expected after 00Z at around 10KT. Low chance for an east or northeast outflow with wind speeds over 10KT pushing through the terminals after 03Z. Either way, by 08Z, diurnal south winds under 8KT will set up for the rest of the night. VFR conditions with clouds remaining at or above 10kft is expected through the period. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...South winds around 10KT will develop across much of the region, with stronger southeast winds at KBIH with gusts over 20KT after 20Z. KDAG will remain light out of the west most of the day before increasing after 00Z. Thunderstorms today will be more isolated than the past few days, favoring the terrain of Clark, Lincoln, and Mohave County. Unlike the past few days, scattered thunderstorms may develop on the Sierra this afternoon including near KBIH. Any storms may contain lightning, sudden gusty outflow winds, brief heavy rain, and CIGs below 8000ft. Low confidence in thunderstorm chances near the Colorado River Valley, including KEED and KIFP, no mention in the current TAF but potential for nearby convection and outflows exists after 21Z through the evening. Convection will wane after sunset and light winds favoring typical overnight patterns should prevail overnight. VFR CIGs at times should remain at or above 10kft. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gorelow AVIATION...Nickerson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter