FXUS63 KJKL 011442

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Jackson KY

942 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...

 

- A low potential for rain returns today and lingers into Monday 

  morning.



- A more significant system brings a higher potential for 

  widespread rain arriving around the middle of the week. 



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 942 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2026



Freshened up the forecast with the latest observational data from

around the area. Downslope southeasterly winds continue to keep

temperatures elevated in southeastern parts of the area, near the TN

and VA border. The forecast remains on track for a shortwave to move

through the area, leading to light showers.



UPDATE Issued at 710 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2026



With cloud cover and downslope flow in the southeast portions of

the CWA, temperatures in some locations nearer to the TN and VA

border were running warmer than forecast. Hourly mainly 

temperature and dewpoint grids for the next few hours were 

freshened up based on recent observations.



&&



.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)

Issued at 400 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2026



Early this morning, shortwave ridging extended from east of 

southeast US coast into the Central Appalachians to MI and was 

shifting eastward. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough extended from 

portions of the Central Conus/IA vicinity into the lower MS Valley 

vicinity. Behind that, shortwave ridging extended from Mexico across 

the Southern Plains and into parts of the Central Plains. Further 

west, an upper level trough continues to move into western Canada 

and western sections of the Conus. At the surface, a ridge of high 

pressure was centered in the mid Atlantic states. High and mid level 

clouds were passing across the region at this point. The weak 

returns on radar across the region at this time appear to be virga, 

with rather dry air in place in the low levels. Mid and high level 

clouds continue moving across the region though there were some 

breaks or thinner areas at times and temperatures as of 3 AM EST 

ranged from around 50 to the low 60s.



Today and tonight, the shortwave ridging east of eastern KY will 

continue to shift to the east while the shortwave trough will 

approach from the west. The axis of this shortwave trough should 

move into eastern Ky tonight and then shift to the east on Monday 

morning. Sfc high pressure centered in the mid Atlantic states 

should gradually become centered along the eastern seaboard. 

Meanwhile, shortwave ridging builds east in the wake of the 

shortwave and the axis of this ridging reaches the western Gulf to 

sections of the OH Valley by late Monday. Further west, the 

previously mentioned upper trough will work across the sections of 

western Canada and the western U.S. and enter the Plains/portions of 

the Central Conus by Monday evening. 



Mid and even low level moisture will gradually increase today as the 

shortwave trough nears, with moisture in the low and mid levels 

peaking from this evening to early on Monday. During that time, PW 

per the 00Z REFS should peak in the 1 to 1.2 inch range or about the 

85th to 90th percentile. As moisture increases and the shortwave 

nears, light rain could reach the ground in the southwest as early 

as this morning, though the potential across the area peaks during 

the afternoon into tonight. There remains considerable uncertainty 

on the areal extent of rain reaching the ground as well as timing 

and where/if it will be measurable particularly in the southeast. 

There the effects of downslope low level level flow around surface 

high pressure centered in the mid Atlantic states and extending into 

parts of the Southeast should be the strongest. Chances for light 

rain diminish on Monday morning as the shortwave departs to the east 

and northeast and 500 mb height rises follow. For QPF, opted to lean 

higher than the NBM deterministic and toward WPC QPF for tonight 

to account for some of the higher 00Z deterministic guidance and 

00Z HREF and 00Z REFS means. 



.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)

Issued at 400 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2026



Upper ridging shifts across eastern KY and sections of the Southeast

Monday night to Tuesday. Meanwhile, the upper level trough moves 

into the Central Conus and approaches the OH Valley from the west.

Recent deterministic GFS and ECMWF runs and GEFS/EPS means develop

a closed low by late Tuesday, but then differ in the track and how

long it is maintained and the downstream evolution. The common

theme of deterministic and ensemble guidance is that the axis of

the 500 mb trough should remain west of eastern KY into at least

Friday. Also, there is consensus in the guidance on bringing a

lead shortwave trough into the OH Valley on Wednesday which crosses

the area by late Wednesday night or early Thursday. At the same 

time, a sfc low pressure system should track from the Central and 

into the eastern Conus and through the OH Valley. As this system 

crosses the area, 00Z LREF from the 31st has mean PW rising into 

the 1.2 to 1.4 inch range on Wednesday afternoon/evening or 

roughly into at least the 90th to 97th percentile for early 

November. This system should bring the potential for more 

widespread rainfall to the region from Wednesday into Thursday. 

Some locally heavier rainfall is not out of the question if there 

were to be any training given the degree of anticipated moisture. 

WPC has placed western portions of the CWA in a marginal risk 

(Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for Day 4.



Thunder cannot be ruled out as the midweek system passes though 

instability will be limited with MUCAPE peaking at 250 J/kg or 

less per 00Z LREF. Winds may also become a bit gusty with the 

midweek system in the Tuesday night to Wednesday evening period, 

with the strongest gusts most probable in the higher terrain near 

the VA border. ENS based probabilities for wind gusts over 40 mph 

are maximized in the 20 to 30 percent range near the VA 

border/harlan County per the 00Z LREF. Otherwise, chances for rain

linger until the 500 mb trough axis crosses the area around the 

late Friday to early Saturday timeframe. 



Temperatures will be mild on Tuesday, on the order of 10 to 15 

degrees or so above normal for highs and remain mild until the

front crosses the region at midweek. Temperatures trend colder to

end the week as the trough moves across the area. 



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)

ISSUED AT 720 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2026



VFR conditions with primarily mid and high level clouds were 

observed to begin the period. As a disturbance approaches from the

west and southwest, the atmosphere will gradually be saturating 

from the top down and low clouds should develop/arrive after 18Z 

and then spread to the north and east. VFR should generally 

prevail, however. Light rain is possible mainly after 18Z for 

locations near and west of I-75, with what rain that materializes 

spreading to the east and northeast through the end of the 

period. If rain is more substantive than currently forecast, some 

brief sub VFR reductions cannot be completely ruled out toward 

the end of the period mainly in the north and west, but 

confidence in it its occurrence continues to not be high enough to

include at this juncture.



&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...GINNICK

SHORT TERM...JP

LONG TERM...JP

AVIATION...JP