ACUS01 KWNS 011956

SWODY1

SPC AC 011954



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0154 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026



Valid 012000Z - 021200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds

and a few tornadoes will become a concern across much of New Mexico

into the southern/central High Plains from late this afternoon

through tonight. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may

also occur with convection across parts of Arizona this afternoon

and evening.



...20z Update...

No changes are needed this outlook cycle. Regional radar shows a

broad area of precipitation continuing to overspread much of

Arizona, associated with the lead short-wave trough. Thus far, this

convective activity has remained sub-severe, though some enhancement

in reflectivity and lightning activity is starting to occur along

the leading edge in southeast AZ. The downstream airmass across

portions of New Mexico has remained relatively clear, allowing for

modest destabilization (500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) amid ample

deep-layer shear. Given these observational trends, the expectation

for a broken/low-topped line of thunderstorms emerging across

eastern AZ into western/central NM by 20-00Z remains on track. 



In the wake of this activity, some clearing can be noted in

southwest Arizona where a pocket of 500 J/kg of MLCAPE has emerged.

An isolated severe wind and tornado threat remains possible if

storms are able to redevelop in this region.



..Karstens.. 11/01/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026/



...Southwest into the Southern/Central High Plains...

Extensive cloud cover remains prevalent over much of AZ/NM into the

southern/central High Plains this morning, as low/mid-level moisture

continues to spread over these regions downstream of highly

amplified upper troughing extending across the West Coast. Multiple

embedded mid-level perturbations and a strong mid/upper-level

subtropical jet will overspread the Southwest and adjacent

southern/central High Plains through tonight. A pronounced low-level

mass response is forecast across the southern/central High Plains

late tonight, with greater low-level moisture expected to stream

northward across these regions. Still, the primary uncertainty

relating to severe potential through the period remains how much

destabilization can occur in an otherwise favorably sheared

environment.



Current expectations are for widespread cloudiness to hinder diurnal

heating and the development of instability to some degree through

the late afternoon, although some cloud breaks remain possible given

recent trends in visible satellite imagery across NM. The tropical

source region for the enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow

overspreading the Southwest will also limit mid-level lapse rates,

with consensus of latest guidance suggesting they will remain near

moist adiabatic through much of the troposphere. Even with these

potential thermodynamic limitations, there will probably be enough

weak boundary-layer instability in place by late afternoon across

western/central NM to support surface-based convection.



A broken/low-topped line of thunderstorms should develop across

eastern AZ into western/central NM by 20-00Z as a lead mid-level

shortwave trough ejects northeastward over the Southwest. While

MLCAPE may only reach the 250-750 J/kg range, strongly veering and

increasing flow with height through low/mid-levels will support

ample deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. An increasing threat

for scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of

tornadoes remains apparent as this convection spreads quickly

east-northeastward through the evening, with some potential for

isolated 75+ mph gusts. Greater low-level moisture (low 60s surface

dewpoints) and related instability will be present across parts of

the southern/central High Plains this evening and overnight, and an

increasing threat for severe winds and a few tornadoes will likely

exist across these regions given the continued presence of favorable

low-level and deep-layer shear. This threat will likely continue

through the end of the period (early Monday morning) across the

OK/TX Panhandles into portions of southwest KS and western OK.



Across southern/central AZ, an isolated severe wind and tornado

threat may also develop this afternoon behind the initial/lead

shortwave trough. Additional thunderstorms should form as

large-scale ascent associated with the primary upper trough

overspreads this region. While instability is expected to remain

limited given ongoing clouds/precipitation, above-average low-level

moisture and strong shear may aid organized convection and some

severe risk. Have maintained the Marginal Risk across

southern/central AZ to account for this possibility, but confidence

in higher coverage of severe thunderstorms was too low to include

greater severe probabilities at this time.



...South Florida...

Numerous to widespread thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning

across south FL in association with a weak mid-level wave. The 12Z

observed sounding from MFL showed modest winds through low/mid

levels and weak deep-layer shear, but cool temperatures at mid/upper

levels. This may support occasionally strong convection capable of

producing gusty winds this afternoon, but organized severe

thunderstorms still appear unlikely.



$$