ACUS11 KWNS 012135

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 012134 

AZZ000-012300-



Mesoscale Discussion 2422

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0334 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026



Areas affected...Southwest Arizona



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 012134Z - 012300Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...An isolated strong storm will be possible, but the overall

severe threat should remain relatively low.



DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures are warming into the low-mid 70s

within cloud breaks across southwest AZ, and deepening cumulus is

noted along a deep-layer confluence zone coincident with a

subtropical shortwave trough ejecting quickly east-northeastward

over southwest AZ.  A couple more hours of surface heating is

possible prior to passage of the shortwave trough and associated

low-level cooling/drying occurs.  A tendency for warming midlevel

temperatures from the west and the low-level cooling will limit the

magnitude of and the spatial and temporal window for destabilization

from southwest into south central AZ.  In the interim, a strong,

low-topped storm will be possible along the confluence band with

low-end potential for strong convective gusts given strong midlevel

flow and long hodographs.



..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/01/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...PSR...



LAT...LON   33311172 32991196 32641255 32571304 32631349 32961362

            33371348 33641305 33891221 33741177 33311172 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH