AWUS01 KWNH 011751 FFGMPD FLZ000-012200- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1543 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1249 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2026 Areas affected...central/southern FL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 011748Z - 012200Z SUMMARY...Scattered areas of very high rain rates (2-4 in/hr) are expected to maintain a threat for localized flash flooding across portions of central and southern FL through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery over south-central FL at 1715Z showed numerous thunderstorms in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee with scattered coverage extending north and south over the central and southern Peninsula. Evidence of an embedded MCV also shows in radar imagery between Orlando and Lake Okeechobee while local radar imagery indicated a chaotic pattern of movement with outflow interactions impacting storm redevelopment near the coast. MRMS indicated peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 4 inches over the past 4 hours within a very moist environment containing PWs of 1.7 to 2.2 inches and MLCAPE of 500-2000 J/kg (per 17Z SPC mesoanalysis). The synoptic scale setup contains a north-south oriented upper level trough over the western FL Panhandle while high pressure at the surface centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast was helping to focus enhanced low level easterly winds into the FL Peninsula. 925-850 mb winds of 20-30 kt were observed on area VAD wind plots over central to southern FL, among relatively weak steering flow. Mean deeper layer steering flow was oriented similarly to the low level inflow but 10-20 kt weaker, allowing for a combination of slow moving, back building and training of heavy rain cores. The pattern will continue to be in place over a good portion of the day today and over at least the next 4-5 hours, the threat of peak hourly rainfall between 2-4 inches is expected to focus over a broad region of central and southern FL. Ongoing cells over south-central FL may begin to evolve westward while new development occurs upstream across the eastern Peninsula later this afternoon, although that will also be somewhat depending on the movement of the apparent MCV near Lake Okeechobee. Localized flash flooding will continue with the greatest threat for impacts across the urban I-95 corridor and other urban locations within the interior. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW... ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC... LAT...LON 29188087 28198016 27537980 26647956 25947970 25467985 25268055 25328072 25438077 25608075 25878063 25978059 26048067 26048089 25858116 25728141 25698167 25798193 26118226 26588258 27448310 28198317 28788275 29088203