AWUS01 KWNH 012004

FFGMPD

MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-020200-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1544

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

303 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2026



Areas affected...portions of lower MS Valley



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 012000Z - 020200Z



SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding may occur through 02Z across

portions of the lower MS Valley. Thunderstorms, a few slow moving,

are likely to form with potential for isolated hourly rainfall

totals over 2 inches.



DISCUSSION...1940Z visible satellite imagery showed a cyclonic

swirl over southwestern LA with confluent/convergent axes noted

over southern portions of the state between I-10 and the coast as

well as in the vicinity of a surface trough extending northward

near the MS River. A second cyclonic swirl was noted near the

junction of AR/MS/LA. Precipitable water values remained high over

the region at 1.7 to 2.0 inches, but OSPO ALPW imagery showed that

this moisture was focused in the lower levels with a significant

layer of dry air sampled in the mid to upper levels.



SPC mesoanalysis data from 19Z showed 500 to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE

over LA into southern MS with little to no inhibition and

radar/visible satellite imagery was already showing the expanding

development of showers/thunderstorms near the confluent/convergent

axes noted above. 0-6 km winds were less than 10 kt from the

southern AR/MS border into much of LA with the 850-300 mb layer a

bit higher, up to 20 kt. This could promote some slow movement of

cells with hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches, and isolated values of

2+ inches. However, given the different environment with respect

to the kinematic flow and drier air aloft, a repeat of the

isolated extreme rainfall observed on Halloween is not expected to

occur. However, overlap of locally heavy rain with urban areas or

locations that were impacted with heavy rainfall over the past 24

hours could see localized flash flooding through 02Z.



Otto



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...



ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...



LAT...LON   33419106 33139070 32649060 31859077 30919058 

            30409021 29818956 29508976 29299008 29159088 

            29449159 29569258 29859299 30219314 30719312 

            31359285 32799210 33329166