AWUS01 KWNH 012152 FFGMPD FLZ000-020300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1546 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 452 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2026 Areas affected...Florida Peninsula Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 012151Z - 020300Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr will continue through the evening. Although there continues to be uncertainty in the placement of heaviest rainfall, some areas will likely receive an additional 3-5+" of rain, leading to renewed and additional flash flooding. Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this aftn depicts a large area of heavy rain with embedded convection pivoting around the southern and central Florida Peninsula. Embedded within this, an MCV is clearly evident rotating over Lake Okeechobee. This MCV is located within broad mid-level troughing and enhanced jet-level diffluence, suggesting deep synoptic ascent is also in place. In addition, the thermodynamics are extremely favorable for heavy rain with PWs measured via GPS of around 2.1 inches, or well above the 90th percentile for the date, with 1000-850mb and 850-700mb LPW exceeding the 95th percentile according to CIRA. This is in response to persistent easterly flow off the Atlantic, and where MLCAPE remains above 1500 J/kg along the eastern Peninsula, MRMS hourly rainfall has been well above 2 inches. It has already been extremely wet across the Peninsula today, reflected by NSSL QPE that has been 2-4 inches in many areas, with locally more than 7 inches measured via mesonet sites near the town of Okeechobee. As the MCV continues to pivot slowly to the WNW, accelerated 850mb inflow from the Atlantic reaching 25-30 kts will help to drive locally enhanced ascent and continue waves of heavy rainfall. While there is some uncertainty among the various CAMs as to the placement of the heaviest rainfall through the evening, the focus will likely be just east of the MCV due to the aforementioned accelerated inflow overlapping the highest instability. Corfidi vectors aligned generally anti-parallel to the mean 0-6km winds indicate a high likelihood of training, and with rainfall rates that could briefly touch 4"/hr (HRRR), both the HREF and REFS indicate a 30-70% chance of at least 3" of additional rainfall, with locally 5-7" possible. Although the soils across Florida are generally more permeable to heavy rainfall, this event appears favorable for more significant runoff capable of flash flood impacts. Soils are already saturated from today's rainfall, and this is reflected by high percentiles in both the 0-40cm layer (98%) and 0-10cm RSM (60-80%). This indicates that any additional rainfall should quickly transition to runoff, even outside of urban areas, and for this reason the risk for flash flooding is likely as thunderstorms continue to repeat into the evening. Weiss ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW... ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC... LAT...LON 29138157 29038097 28678058 28038042 27458011 27358008 26697989 25977998 25478058 25558118 25908175 26368221 26778236 27278267 27698288 28338288 29038241