FXAK67 PAJK 011903 AAA

AFDAJK



Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Juneau AK

1003 AM AKST Sun Nov 1 2026



.UPDATE...Marine forecast update and aviation discussion update 

following the 18Z TAF issuance.



In addition, The low approaching the southern panhandle this

morning has caused winds in the northern inner channels to flip to

a northerly direction. Lynn Canal, Glacier Bay, and Taku Inlet

have all shown the northerly flip with the southern extent of

those northerly winds reaching Icy Strait for Lynn Canal and

Glacier Bay, and Grave Point for the north winds out of Taku

Inlet. South of those areas SE to S winds still prevail though at

a reduced strength then expected for Stephens Passage and Chatham

Strait. These north winds in the north inner channels will likely

persist into the afternoon before flipping south again as the 

incoming low passes through the area and into the Yukon early this

evening.



&&



SYNOPSIS...



Key Messages:



- A front will slowly push through the panhandle today, with gusty

  winds and moderate to heavy rain possible, mainly along south 

  of Frederick Sound.



- Heavy snow tapering off along the upper Klondike Highway this

  afternoon with a Winter Storm Warning in effect.



- The wet and active pattern will continue into next week as

  multiple gale to potentially storm force fronts and lows push

  through the Gulf and bring impacts to the panhandle.

 



SHORT TERM.../through Monday night/...

The front continues to slowly push through the panhandle today,

clearing east of the region this evening. A meso low along the

front will quickly lift northeast towards the southern panhandle

this morning, jumping inland likely over southern Baranof Island

or just south and quickly shearing out as it lifts northeast.

Moderate to heavy rain and gusty southerly winds along an ahead 

the front/low. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph are expected along and south

of this low, with Wind Advisories continuing for POW Island, 

Ketchikan and Annette Island. Rain will quickly diminish and 

transition to onshore showers behind the front this evening, 

having already across the northeast Gulf Coast, and continuing 

into Monday. Snow continues for the upper elevations of the 

Klondike Highway and have extended the Winter Storm Warning into 

the afternoon. Snow should lighten and transition to showers by 

late this afternoon, continuing tonight into Monday. Across the 

southern panhandle, another developing low will cross Haida Gwaii 

and into Dixon Entrance late tonight into Monday, bringing another

round of steadier/heavier rain, especially for Ketchikan and 

Annette Island. Precip will trend down on Monday night as ridge of

high pressure nudges north into the panhandle. However, the next 

intensifying front is lifting northeast the Gulf and will bring 

more wind and rain for Tuesday. Total rain amounts of 0.50 to 1.00

inches through Monday night, with upwards of 2+ inches for

Ketchikan, Annette Island and Hyder.



LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday night/...

An active Fall pattern continues through the extended forecast, 

with short breaks of dry conditions in between passing systems. 

Maritime interests should remain aware of Gale force fronts 

pushing across the Gulf and along the coast on Tuesday and 

Thursday.



A long wave upper level trough over the Aleutian Chain swings the 

first of many fronts across the Gulf through Tuesday, with 

widespread sustained Gale force winds 35 to 45 kts and storm force 

gusts up to 55 kts across the Gulf and along the coast from Cape 

Decision northward to Cape Suckling through the day.  Overland, 

strong winds remain possible across the central and southern 

panhandle given current forecast orientation of the front with gusts 

u for Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla by late Tueday 

night intoWednesday afternoon. By Wednesday night, a separate, 

but stronger low develops in the northern Pacific as it deepens 

to ~970mb by Thursday morning, and moves into the southern Gulf of

Alaska. This low will swing a strong front across the gulf 

through Thursday, bringing another round of sustained Gale force 

winds 35 to 45 kts and storm force gusts up to 55 kts across the 

Gulf and along the coast from Dixon Entrance northward to the 

Fairweather Grounds through the day. Strongest overlands winds 

once again focused across the southern panhandle, however albeit 

less forecast confidence on location and expected gusts, but 

would not be surprised to see gusts up to 35 mph by Thursday 

evening for Ketchikan and Metlakatla (looking at you Yellow 

Hill).



As of now, no significant QPF concerns with this system given how 

fast each front is expected to push through. Periods of moderate to 

heavy rain are expected, but not expecting a long duration rainfall 

threat. Current rainfall amounts with each front is around 0.5-1.5" 

across the northern and central panhandle, 1-2" for the southern 

panhandle. 



AVIATION.../Through Monday morning/...Active weather continues 

today as a frontal system lingers over the panhandle, maintaining 

high MVFR to low VFR conditions (2,800-3,500 ft) before shifting 

eastward this evening. A fast moving meso low tracking north along

the frontal boundary will likely make landfall near southern 

Baranof Island, clearing the region by the evening. Heavy rain and

gusty winds will impact areas mainly south of Frederick Sound, 

with MVFR conditions prevailing across the south through the day 

before improving by late afternoon to CIGs above 3,500 ft with 

light rain showers. Northern winds are becoming calm and variable,

while southern areas remain gusty. LLWS remains a concern near 

southern terminals this morning, with 45-55 kt winds at 2,000 ft 

persisting until around 00Z.



MARINE...

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):

Strong to gale force southerlies and seas 10 to 15 ft south of

Cape Edgecumbe to Dixon Entrance this morning as front and a

reinforcing low push into the panhandle, with winds quickly become

gentle to moderate and seas trending down but remaining elevated.

Further north, gentle to fresh S to SEly breezes, with fresh to

strong easterlies near Cape Suckling. Seas 8 to 12 ft also slowly

subsiding as well through the night. The next gale force front

will lift northeast in Gulf on Monday night into Tuesday, with

storm force gusts and large seas 15 to 25+ ft expected. Another

larger gale to storm force low and front is expected to reach the

outside waters by Thursday.



Inside (Inner Channels):

The aforementioned front and low pressure will bring fresh to

strong S to SEly from Icy Strait on south, with southerly gales in

Clarence Strait. As the front and low push push by Sunday night,

winds across the inner channels will generally diminish to 15 kt

or less and will continue into Monday. The next front will

approach by Tuesday and will bring another round of fresh to

strong breezes into Wednesday, with gales again possible for

Clarence Strait. Yet another round of strong breezes to gales is

on tap for Thursday as a stronger low and front lift through the

region.



&&



.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ318.

     Wind Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ328.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ330-332.

MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-661. 

     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-033>035-053-642>644-651-652-

     662>664-671-672. 



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...DS

LONG TERM...NM 

AVIATION...BAS 

MARINE...DS/EAL



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