FXPQ50 PGUM 012033 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 633 AM ChST Mon Nov 2 2026 .Marianas Update... Satellite and radar imagery early this morning show patches and lines of showers crawling westward across the area, associated with a broad north-south oriented trough located just east of the coastal waters. Showers look to diminish through the morning even as the trough crosses the islands, as drier air moves in this afternoon. If skies clear sufficiently and winds remain light, Guam may see some island-effect showers this afternoon. Overall, little change was needed in the forecast. A High Surf Advisory and High Risk of Rip Currents remain in effect for north and west facing reefs of the Marianas through this afternoon, associated with elevated long-period swell from Typhoon In-fa. The northwest to north-northwest swell from In-fa looks to decrease today, with surf expected to fall below hazardous levels late this afternoon. Combined seas of 6 to 8 feet today look to diminish to 5 to 6 feet late tonight as the elevated long-period swell diminishes, then remain near these levels for much of the week. && .Tropical Systems Update... Typhoon In-fa (30W) is located north-northwest of the Marianas, and is slowly meandering to the south-southeast of Iwo To. Maximum sustained winds decreased slightly to 100 mph overnight, and In-fa remains a Category 2 typhoon, though it is forecast to continue to weaken and potentially become Category 1 later tonight. In-fa looks to continue slowly westward through tonight, passing to the south of Iwo To, before gradually turning northward through midweek and passing to its west. For more information on Typhoon In-fa please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory, prepared by the National Weather Service, under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM, or the Tropical Cyclone Warning, prepared by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW. && .Eastern Micronesia Update... The most notable feature is an elongated weak circulation or trough centered just south of Kosrae, embedded within the monsoon trough fragment stretching across the region, producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms nearby. Pohnpei and Majuro sit within or just north of the trough axis, but remain relatively dry this morning. Overall, there was little change to the forecast as most of the showers and thunderstorms will focus near Kosrae over the next day or so. Winds will remain light to gentle throughout the forecast period, with combined seas around 4 to 6 feet. && .Western Micronesia Update... The forecast was in good shape, with low-end scattered showers near Yap expected to diminish to isolated by mid-day, as the nearby trough weakens and shifts south of the area. Palau may see island- effect showers this afternoon as light winds continue out of the northwest. Drier conditions then look to persist for much of this week. Overnight buoy data from Babeldaob, Palau, showed a sharp increase in 12-14 second swell from the northeast with combined sea heights at least one foot above guidance. This was an indicator that the expected long-period swell emanating from distant Typhoon In-fa is arriving slightly sooner than prior model guidance indicated, sufficient to produce hazardous surf along north-facing reefs of Yap, where swell heights are anticipated to be higher with a more northerly component than the swells arriving at Palau. So, a High Surf Advisory was issued for north-facing reefs of Yap through Tuesday afternoon. Surf along north-facing reefs of Palau will be elevated through the next few days, but is expected to remain just below hazardous levels of 9 feet. Seas and surf are expected to peak near Yap sometime late tonight or Tuesday, with surf possibly decreasing below hazardous levels by Tuesday night as the pulse of long-period swell diminishes. && .Prev discussion... /issued 512 PM ChST Sun Nov 1 2026/ Marianas Synopsis... Partly cloudy skies and isolated to scattered showers are visible on radar and satellite imagery over the Marianas this afternoon. Models and observations indicate combined seas of 5 to 7 feet. Discussion... A fairly dry and uneventful week is anticipated. Scattered island effect showers are expected to continue tomorrow afternoon for Guam due to light easterly winds. This will keep showers mainly concentrated to the west side near Agat. By Tuesday, gentle east winds will be too high for island effect showers. However, brief trade wind showers will be possible across the Marianas much of the forecast period as winds increase gradually from tomorrow. However, these will remain weak and isolated to low-end scattered in nature. Marine... Light to gentle trade winds will return from Sunday night onwards. Combined seas of 5 to 7 ft will increase slightly tomorrow with a pulse of long-period, north-northwesterly swell from Typhoon In-fa. Otherwise, sea heights are not expected to change much throughout the week. A secondary east swell may become the dominant swell by late Tuesday. There will be a high risk of rip currents along north and west facing reefs through at least Monday afternoon. There is also a moderate risk of rip currents along east-facing reefs. Tropical Systems... Typhoon In-fa is north of the Marianas now, near 22.7N and 144.1E. It is moving east-southeast at 3 mph, and is expected to make a loop and then turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed through Monday. In-fa is forecast to continue to weaken through tonight due to a dry surrounding environment and increasing shear. For more information on Typhoon In-fa please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory, prepared by the National Weather Service, under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM, or the Tropical Cyclone Warning, prepared by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW. Eastern Micronesia... Drier weather is generally expected to prevail at Pohnpei and Majuro this week as a monsoon-like trough remains in the vicinity, with shower coverage likely remaining only isolated throughout most of the forecast period. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated at Kosrae for the next couple of days with the trough remaining to the north and convergence continuing in the vicinity of the island. Drier weather is then expected at Kosrae for the remainder of the week. Winds will remain light to gentle at all locations through the week. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will continue through the forecast period with seas consisting of a dominant northeast swell at all locations and a small northwest swell at Pohnpei and Kosrae. Western Micronesia... The monsoon trough has fragmented across the region, with only patchy showers lingering across parts of Yap and Palau. A plume of drier air looks to shift southward slightly, leading to even drier weather, more so for Yap Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. A segment of the monsoon trough, responsible for a period of showers and a few thunderstorms today at Chuuk, continues to push southwestward, with showers decreasing to isolated over Chuuk Lagoon later this evening. Active weather looks to persist for southern Chuuk State through Monday night along increased convergence on the southern side of the monsoon trough, also linking up with some diffluent flow aloft from an upper-level trough offset to the north. Overall, fairly quiet weather is expected for the main forecast locations through much of the upcoming week due to the lack of significant features across the region. Weak winds and daytime heating at Palau are still expected to bring an uptick in clouds and showers over the islands Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Combined seas are 4 to 5 feet, with seas increasing to 6 ft at Yap from northeast swell from Typhoon In-fa. Seas will continue to build to 5 to 6 feet across Yap and Palau, possibly reaching 7 feet at Yap Monday night and Tuesday. The long-period swell will also support elevated surf along north-facing reefs over the next few days for Yap and Palau, with seas likely exceeding hazardous levels of 9 feet along north-facing reefs of Yap Monday night and Tuesday. Meanwhile, benign seas and surf continue at Chuuk, with a slight increase in northeast swell increasing seas to 4 to 6 feet around Tuesday. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas/East and West Micronesia/Tropical Update: DeCou Marianas: Ogle East Micronesia: Whisnant West Micronesia: Cruz