FXUS06 KWBC 012002 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EST Sun November 01 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 07 - 11 2026 Today's numerical models depict a mean 500-hPa flow pattern that is broadly consistent with the positive phase of the PNA. A deep slow-moving trough is forecast over the northeastern Pacific south of Mainland Alaska and west of the Pacific Northwest. A second trough is forecast near the Aleutians, upstream of the main cyclonic flow. This second trough is forecast to slide southeastward, reinforcing the cyclonic flow over the northeast Pacific. As this cyclonic flow inches closer to the west coast of North America, anomalous ridging, initially over the western CONUS is forecast to progress eastward toward the High Plains with above normal heights consolidating over central Canada and the northern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile a trough in the southern stream is forecast over the southern Plains early in the period. This southern stream trough is forecast to deepen as it approaches the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast, eventually making it to the East Coast by day 10. Above normal mid-level heights are forecast across Hawaii near the western extension of a ridge forecast over the central Pacific. Above normal temperatures are likely across the West, due to anomalous ridging ahead of the deep trough forecast over the northeastern Pacific. As this ridge progresses eastward, an increasingly warm pattern is favored across the north-central CONUS, with probabilities of above normal temperatures exceeding 80 percent across the Northern High Plains. Farther to the south and east, a trough predicted in the southern stream reduces chances of anomalous warmth. Near normal temperatures are favored in the vicinity of this trough, across much of the Southeast, Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and parts of the Southern Plains. Above normal temperatures are more likely across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic, ahead of this trough. Above normal temperatures are likely across much of eastern Alaska, ahead of the deep trough over the northeastern Pacific. Near to below normal temperatures are more likely from the Aleutians to the west coast of the Mainland, closer to the mean trough axis. Above normal temperatures are likely across Hawaii, mainly in response to observed above normal SSTs over much of the tropical Pacific, associated with the current El Nino. The positioning and strength of the cyclonic flow over the northeast Pacific promotes an active pattern across much of the west coast of the CONUS and eastern Alaska. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent across parts of the coastal areas of northwestern California, the Pacific Northwest, and southern portions of Southeast Alaska, where teleconnections from the mean trough position yield the strongest signal. Above normal precipitation is also favored across the Rio Grande Valley and vicinity, associated with a weak surface low early in the period. Above normal precipitation is also favored along the Eastern Seaboard from the Mid Atlantic to the Northeast, ahead of the mean trough position over the Southeast and southern Appalachians. Drier than normal conditions are favored behind this trough, over the Northern Plains, most of the Great Lakes, the northern two-thirds of the Mississippi Valley, and adjacent areas of the Ohio Valley. A slight tilt toward below normal precipitation is also indicated for parts of western Mainland Alaska, due to predicted mean low level offshore flow. Above normal precipitation is favored for eastern and central portions of the Hawaiian islands, consistent with raw precipitation amounts from the ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensembles. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About Average, 3 out 5, due to fairly good model agreement among today's model height solutions offset by conflicting or weak precipitation signals across much of the country. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 15 2026 During the week-2 period, the mean strength of the trough off the West Coast of North America is forecast to increase in comparison to the 6 to 10 day mean height field. This deep trough is predicted to peak in intensity during the beginning and middle of week-2 before slowly weakening as it approaches the Pacific Northwest coast late. Residual cyclonic flow is forecast in its wake over southwestern Alaska. Downstream ridging over the west-central CONUS is forecast to consolidate over central Canada and the Northern Plains, before slowly pushing toward Hudson Bay. Farther to the south, anomalous troughing over the Southeast early in the period is forecast to progress to the East Coast, before lifting offshore toward the end of the period. Above normal mid-level heights are forecast to continue across Hawaii, associated with broad ridging over the central Pacific. Above normal temperatures are favored across most of the CONUS associated with anomalous ridging ahead of the deep trough over the northeastern Pacific. The highest confidence (greater than 80 percent chance) for anomalous warmth is indicated for the Northern Plains as the ridge consolidates over the area throughout much of the period. Above normal temperatures are least likely (less than 33 percent chance) across much of the Southeast, tied to predicted troughing. Anomalous warmth is more likely across eastern Alaska, due to anomalous southeasterly low level flow ahead of a surface low predicted over the Gulf of Alaska. Near to below normal temperatures are favored behind this surface low, from the western Mainland to the Aleutians. Above normal temperatures are favored across Hawaii, underneath predicted above normal heights and consistent with expansive above normal SSTs associated with the current El Nino. As the trough over the eastern Pacific slowly approaches the coast, an active pattern is likely across much of the West Coast of the CONUS and eastern Alaska. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent from coastal areas of northwestern California and the Pacific Northwest northward to southern areas of Southeast Alaska, where enhanced moisture flow is most likely. Above normal precipitation is modestly favored across parts of the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, tied to a departing trough and associated surface low pressure early in the period. In the wake of this trough, increased surface high pressure is forecast, supporting increased chances of below normal precipitation across most of the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and adjacent areas of the Northern Plains. A tilt toward below normal precipitation is also indicated for parts of western Mainland Alaska, due to predicted low level offshore flow. Near normal precipitation is favored for most of Hawaii, as a compromise between wetter raw model output from the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles and drier calibrated output. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to fair model agreement, offset by uncertainties surrounding the evolution of the precipitation pattern across muchof the CONUS. FORECASTER: Scott H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on November 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20221110 - 20161028 - 20171013 - 20251012 - 20201108 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20251011 - 20221110 - 20201108 - 20171013 - 19981012 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Nov 07 - 11 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Nov 09 - 15 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXASA N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$