FXUS61 KCTP 011654 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1154 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No significant changes && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and mild weather will continue until late Wednesday or Wednesday night when we'll likely see some rain showers followed by slightly cooler weather. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and mild weather will continue until late Wednesday or Wednesday night when we'll likely see some rain showers followed by slightly cooler weather. Latest satellite images, observations and high res HREF guidance all show light wind and variable amounts of mid and high clouds. This should remain the case for the est of today with almost no low clouds/cu. More moisture streams into the SW zones of the CWA Monday. A sprinkle isn't out of the question over the N Monday night - much like the very small and brief shower they had two nights ago. We'll keep the forecast at 0 PoP since there is no risk of 0.01" accumulating. That isn't great news for northern PA where BFD only accumulated 0.85" through all of Oct, and is currently on a run of 14 straight days without measurable (0.01") rain. Upper level ridging builds back into the region for the first half of the week, helping to prolong our dry stretch and keeping high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal for much of week. Highs in the lower 70s are in store for all but the higher elevations on Wed. Chances for widespread rainfall return for the second half of the week. Wed night is the earliest anyone will see precip as a complex system develops over the middle of the country. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the upper air pattern and phasing of energy aloft that will decide the development and progression of this system. The more weighted/favored (per WPC) ECMWF solution yields only a brief 12-18hr window of precip as the cold front moves through (longer in the eastern half of the CWA than over the west) Wed night and Thurs. Cold air under a sharp trough could make the first part of the weekend a little chilly and damp with instability showers. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are virtually certain through 08Z Monday with just a BKN-OVC altocu and cirrus layer between FL080-FL250 through the forecast timeframe (with the greatest amount and thickness of the clouds focused across far SW PA, where A few temps may reach the 70-72F mark). Outlook... Mon-Tue...patchy AM valley fog; otherwise, VFR prevails. Wed-Thu...Rain showers, especially in the PM hours on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Sub-VFR conditions become more likely in showers. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo/Bauco DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Bauco AVIATION...Lambert/Beaty/Tyburski