FXUS61 KILN 012302 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 602 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A weak mid level disturbance will bring some light rain showers to the region tonight into early Monday. A stronger system will result in a more widespread rainfall event for the middle part of the week. 2) An upper trough will cross the region on Friday, bringing temperatures back to near normal across the region in northerly surface flow. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A weak upper disturbance will cross the Ohio Valley tonight and bring scattered light showers to the region overnight and early Monday. Off of the surface, dry air is in place and these overnight showers will have a very dry atmosphere to precipitate through before they will actually reach the ground. Any precip is expected to be generally light on the order of .01-.02 inches, but a isolated spot or two could see a wetting rainfall. The disparity here is noted in the models as hit and miss QPF in light rain or showers. Ahead of the short wave, a developing 20-30 knot low level jet will lift up into our area this evening into tonight and aid in the development of showers given a strong moisture transport. Models have come in a much better conformity with the next system that will affect the region on Wednesday with a period of rain and showers, significantly more moist than what will be seen overnight tonight. A cutoff low in the Upper Midwest early Wed will move ne through WI or possibly N through MN during the day. In either scenario, a notable dry punch will be wrapped into the system and have its western edge over the IN/OH border by nightfall. Rain after nightfall is expected to be in the eastern reaches of the forecast area and moving steadily east to be out of the picture by midnight. Key message 2) On Friday, cold advection showers will be present in northerly flow behind the upper low that will hang a l/w trough over the Ohio Valley and provide a source of lift to lingering llvl moisture. Sfc high pressure will then build behind it and dry out the region through at least Saturday. Above normal temperatures will prevail through Friday and then drop to near normal which will feel notably cooler with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the upper 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Light shower activity has overspread the area this evening ahead of a shortwave trough. The atmosphere will continue to saturate from the top down through the overnight into the morning hours. VFR ceilings are likely to reduce to the MVFR and IFR range by Monday morning. Some MVFR visibility reductions and continued shower activity are also possible through the morning. Shower activity ends and ceilings should start to lift Monday evening. Light southerly flow persists tonight before increasing on Monday. OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs and vsbys possible at times Wed and Thurs. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Franks AVIATION...Campbell