FXUS61 KLWX 011835 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 135 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes made to the forecast as dry stretch continues. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry conditions continue through mid week, then cloudy & rainy towards the end of the week with an incoming cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions continue through mid week, then cloudy & rainy towards the end of the week with an incoming cold front. The stretch of benign weather conditions is expected to continue through the middle of the work week. Surface high pressure centered over the Northeast today is going to slide offshore tonight into Monday. The ridge then remains nearly stationary over the western Atlantic and maintains its influence across the region. The surface ridge becomes somewhat vertically stacked as a mid-to upper ridge builds over the Carolinas Tuesday into Wednesday. While return southerly flow does bring temperatures back to the 70s Tuesday into Wednesday, conditions are expected to remain dry as widespread subsidence dominates and no appreciable moisture advection into the region occurs until late in the week. Speaking of, a strong upper trough does approach from the OH Valley Wednesday, but is slowed in its progress due to a stronger, more stacked ridge to its east. Scattered showers reach the Alleghenies sometime Wednesday afternoon to evening, but most of that activity should be light given the lingering dry low-level airmass. High temperatures in the low to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday are going to be well above normal for early November. Daily high temperature records for the first week of November at all of our climate stations are mostly in the low 80s, so not expecting any record breaking warmth at this time. Surface high pressure begins to break down around midweek as a strong upper-level trough forms over the Great Lakes before pushing eastward. Cloud cover likely begins to increase throughout the day Wednesday as the stemming cold front approaches sometime between Thursday and Friday. This will bring the first chance for widespread beneficial rain throughout the region for the first time in over two weeks. Total QPF amounts remain uncertain at this time, but could accumulate in amounts averaging 0.5-1.5 inches throughout the region as the front pushes through. Additional rain is possible next Monday & into early next week as a second cold front moves in from the west. Temperatures will cool to more seasonable conditions as these fronts move through, with highs in the mid-60s and lows in the 40s at the start of next week. Conditions become drier towards the middle of next week as the trough transitions offshore. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday night across the region as high pressure maintains dry conditions and light winds. Periods of mid-level to high-level clouds over the next few days, but again no operational impacts expected. A strong cold front begins to move into the region Thursday into Friday. This is going to bring periods of rain along with likely sub- VFR conditions, which could begin as early as Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Favorable marine conditions are expected across the local waters through at least the middle of the work week. High pressure moves offshore tonight, then settles over the western Atlantic through Wednesday. Winds become southeast to south Monday through Wednesday at around 10 knots. Some southerly channeling is possible Wednesday into Thursday, and that could bring winds closer to SCA levels, but confidence is low at this time. A strong cold front approaches from the west on Thursday, possibly bringing a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRR/SRT AVIATION...KRR MARINE...KRR