FXUS61 KOKX 011740 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and increasingly mild conditions should continue into mid week. 2) The next chance of a wetting rain will be late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The driest stretch of the year so far will persist in response to confluent NW upper flow giving way to East Coast upper ridging thru mid week. At the surface, modified Canadian high pressure builds overhead today, and then passes gradually offshore through mid week. Sunny skies today (outside of a bit of a veil of cirrus), dry and seasonably cool. High temps will be slightly milder than those of Sat, generally in the upper 50s/lower 60s, with an afternoon return flow. Slightly milder temps for tonight/early Mon mrng with light return flow developing. This does bring the potential for patchy fog in addition to patchy frost conditions for outlying areas. Conditions gradually moderate early to mid next week as heights rise aloft and high pressure slides offshore with return SW flow. High temps will incrementally rise through the 60s each day, to near 10 degrees above seasonable (upper 60s/lower 70s) by Wed/Thu. Similarly, overnight lows will rise from the 30s/40s Mon morning to 50s/near 60 by Thu morning (close to normal high temps for parts of the area this time of year). .KEY MESSAGE 2... There remains general agreement on a frontal system and/or low pressure affecting the area late in the week into the weekend with a wetting rainfall. The 00Z GFS timing suggests Fri and Sat the best chances for rain, but the NBM has not latched on to this trend yet. The AI-GFS is faster, which supports sticking with the NBM attm. Notably the AI-GFS is dry with the upr low at the end of the event, whereas the other modeling produces rain as the H5 low swings thru. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure remains in control through the period, sliding just offshore late this afternoon and this evening. VFR throughout the TAF period. Winds will be more SW a few hours late this afternoon, especially for the coastal terminals before going light and variable at many terminals towards late evening. Overnight, winds go light and variable at most terminals. Tomorrow, SW winds develop and get to 8-11 kt. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled AMD expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday afternoon through Monday night: VFR. SW winds up to or just above 10 kt during the afternoon, 5 kt or less at night. Tuesday: VFR, SW winds. Wednesday: VFR, SW to S winds. Thursday: VFR more likely early, with the probability of MVFR or lower higher late in the day and at night for showers with MVFR or lower cond developing. Friday: Sub VFR possible in showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA cond should continue on all waters through at least Wed night as high pressure maintains a weak pressure gradient. Hazardous seas over 5 ft are possible on the ocean waters out 20 nm Fri via increasing S-SE flow ahead of an approaching frontal system. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...JE MARINE...