FXUS61 KRLX 011802 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 102 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Timing of the mid to late week system is trending slower than previous forecast packages. The main them with this forecast package is that chances of precipitation were increased for Monday morning and into the early afternoon as well as for the midweek system. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Much of the area should remain dry then a system brings widespread precipitation chances mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Cloudy, dry and mild conditions are prevailing albeit mid to high level clouds will lower in heights by Monday morning as a trough passes overhead which may bring in some rain shower activity. This feature will drive in better chances of rain shower activity than previous forecast packages. Any rain that may be received will be on the lower QPF side if any. A few showers may edge into the area, mainly along and west of the Ohio River due to high pressure forecast to retreat east although chances do remain low for this time frame. Models have come to better agreement on a broad feature forecast now to affect the area midweek and into the later part of the week. This broad low pressure system will drive in a cold frontal boundary late Wednesday and have it pass through on Thursday. Models have a better handle on the coverage and placement of the system and its progression although they have trouble on timing still. The GFS and EURO have it pushing in chances a lot sooner than the Canadian and the NAM. The National Blend of Models solution has a lot of weight on the forecast as it raises PoPs for Wednesday and Thursday with categorical associated with frontal passage. Central guidance has also even raised and introduced slight chances for thunderstorms in the forecast for Wednesday evening. Due to model uncertainty of timing, even though we will get a widespread rain opportunity, amounts will lack in confidence until we get closer to the event. The main takeaway is that we will get beneficial rainfall amounts, however the timing will lead to larger or smaller amounts as the pace of frontal passage speeds up or slows down. After frontal passage there will be a short period of dry weather until wrap around flow from the broad upper level parent trough swings through the area post frontal passage. This brings back chances for precipitation for the weekend. Temperatures will remain above seasonable past midweek then cooler air will infiltrate the area allowing temperatures to become more seasonable for the end of the week and the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... With clouds thickening and lowering in height through the TAF period, a no fog forecast is on tap for tonight and through the morning. This forecast solution is reinforced by having elevated surface flow and in the boundary layer which will also aid in deterring fog formation. VFR conditions will prevail for the period, however there are slight chances for a shower or two, especially for the western sites, Monday morning. This could lead to lower VIS conditions although the chances are low and the confidence on them from happening is low at this time, therefore mention of shower activity was left out of the TAFs. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower or two could be possible late tonight through Monday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALLMODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time, however isolated IFR conditions may be possible in precipitation mid to late week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ AVIATION...JZ