FXUS62 KTAE 011720 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1220 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1213 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 - Hazardous boating conditions continue for the offshore waters, winds and seas will increase across most of the remainder of the marine zones through Monday. - Rain returns today with isolated thunderstorms possible closer to the coast. Another round of rain is expected to arrive Wednesday and Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1037 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 Pockets of heavier rainfall are continuing closer to the coast this morning with ongoing flash flooding in the Panama City area. Heavy rain has moved away from the flooded area, but light to moderate rains may prevent efficient drainage of flood water over the next few hours. While widespread flooding is not expected today, a few localized spots of heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible near the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 212 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 A shortwave moving across the northeastern Gulf today into tomorrow will allow rain chances to increase across the FL Panhandle, SE Alabama and coast FL Big Bend. Given the prevailing northeast to easterly surface flow across the region, this shortwave looks to induce showers and possibly a couple storms mostly along our coastal areas and offshore, where instability looks to be available. Otherwise, areas inland should expect mostly light to moderate rain showers with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Daytime highs will generally be in the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 212 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 Ridging then prevails across eastern CONUS Monday afternoon through midweek before the next trough and associated frontal system looks to approach the region from the west. Rain chances will once again be in the forecast Wednesday and Thursday before drying out this weekend. Generally expect daytime highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s with overnight lows generally in the 60s through Thursday before dipping into the 50s Friday and Saturday mornings post-frontal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 Widespread MVFR cigs early this aftn except IFR at ECP and VLD at times. Expect slow improvement to VFR generally from east to west from late aftn into the evening. Then MVFR cigs develop overnight. Confidence is low in timing the category transitions. E-NE winds around 10 kts through the period with occasional gusts to 20 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 Easterly winds will be producing Advisory level conditions through the rest of the weekend, as a Gulf low traverses east and over the peninsula by Monday. Winds and seas will diminish following the passage of the low pressure system, returning to more moderate breezes by Tuesday. A wind shift to southerly and southwesterly is forecast by midweek as another frontal system approaches, however significant impacts are not expected at the moment. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 The main story will be the chance for light rain showers and possible thunder for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend today. The scattered showers are expected to be quick in forward progression, leading to a low chance for an actual wetting rain. Transport winds will be moderate at around 15-20 mph from the east through Monday. Dispersions will be fair to good during the afternoon hours each day through the period. Winds will return to northeasterly for the start of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 212 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 Generally around an inch of rainfall is expected across the region over the next week, with isolated higher amounts likely along the coast today as an area of low pressure moves across the northeastern Gulf. There are currently no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 78 64 82 66 / 30 20 20 0 Panama City 77 64 81 65 / 60 20 0 0 Dothan 74 60 79 63 / 60 10 0 0 Albany 74 60 79 62 / 20 10 0 0 Valdosta 78 63 81 64 / 20 30 20 0 Cross City 80 66 82 67 / 50 50 30 0 Apalachicola 76 66 78 67 / 60 30 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Monday for GMZ751- 752-755-770-772-775. && $$ SHORT TERM...Oliver LONG TERM....Oliver AVIATION...LF MARINE...Oliver FIRE WEATHER...Oliver HYDROLOGY...Oliver