FXUS62 KTAE 012012 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 312 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 - Hazardous boating conditions continue for the offshore waters, winds and seas will increase across most of the remainder of the marine zones through Monday. - Rain returns today with isolated thunderstorms possible closer to the coast. Another round of rain is expected to arrive Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Monday) Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 Showers and storms across the Big Bend and offshore should gradually diminish over the rest of the afternoon and evening. Radar signatures show that there may be a wake low developing on the back end of the stratiform rain shield, which is currently over Liberty and Franklin Co. This feature may produce some additional gusty winds near 30 to 40 mph even after the rain moves out of the area. Otherwise, breezy ENE to E winds are expected to continue into Monday due to a fairly tight pressure gradient over the region. A few showers and storms will be possible Monday afternoon across the eastern Big Bend, but widespread rain is not expected. Lows tonight are forecast in the upper 50s to mid 60s with high temperatures Monday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 Easterly winds are forecast to continue Tuesday before gradually becoming southeasterly on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. Rain chances increase Wednesday as a very moist air mass remains overhead but begin to taper off as the front actually arrives Thursday due to the parent low and upper support moving off to the northeast. The already slow front will creep across the region Thursday before a shortwave comes along Friday and sweeps this front and a weaker reinforcing front through the region. The end result of these weak fronts is high temperatures back into the 70s and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 Widespread MVFR cigs early this aftn except IFR at ECP and VLD at times. Expect slow improvement to VFR generally from east to west from late aftn into the evening. Then MVFR cigs develop overnight. Confidence is low in timing the category transitions. E-NE winds around 10 kts through the period with occasional gusts to 20 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 Easterly winds will be producing Advisory level conditions through the rest of the weekend, as a Gulf low traverses east and over the peninsula by Monday. Winds and seas will diminish following the passage of the low pressure system, returning to more moderate breezes by Tuesday. A wind shift to southerly and southwesterly is forecast by midweek as another frontal system approaches, however significant impacts are not expected at the moment. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 Breezy ENE to E winds over the next couple of days will keep dispersions on the higher side despite fairly low mixing heights. Showers and a few storms today should gradually diminish this evening and tonight. Only a few showers and thunderstorms are forecast Monday and Tuesday across the eastern Big Bend before rain chances increase again Wednesday ahead of the next frontal system. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 Despite areas of heavy rain this morning, the heaviest rain fell along the coast and is not expected to produce river flooding. After today, the next substantial chance for rain comes ahead of the next front Wednesday. Additional isolated instances offlooding will be possible, but widespread flooding or river flooding are not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 65 82 66 84 / 10 10 0 30 Panama City 64 81 66 82 / 20 0 0 10 Dothan 60 80 63 82 / 20 0 0 10 Albany 60 79 62 82 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 63 81 65 84 / 10 10 0 20 Cross City 67 82 67 84 / 40 40 0 40 Apalachicola 67 78 68 79 / 30 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EST Monday for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Monday for GMZ751- 752-755-770-772-775. && $$ SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...LF MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Merrifield