FXUS62 KTBW 011921

AFDTBW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

221 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026



...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- A Flood Watch is in effect for Highlands County through Monday

  afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move

  across the area tonight, with some heavy rainfall possible. 



- Increased rain coverage will continue Monday and Tuesday, mainly

  over the interior.  



- Gusty winds over the coastal waters will continue to cause rough

  marine conditions through Monday night.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

A shortwave continues to move across the southeast and Florida this 

afternoon with a surface trough also trying to develop over the 

eastern Gulf. These two features will continue to shift eastward 

through the rest of today and tonight, with increased rainfall 

coverage expected across the state. As we have seen so far today, 

most of this has been in the form of showers, but the presence of 

the shortwave has allowed some thunderstorms to develop and we 

can generally expect a similar trend into tomorrow. The severe 

weather threat is rather low with weak instability in place, but 

there continues to be a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and 

minor flooding for any location that might receive several inches 

of rain in a shorter period of time. Due to the rainfall that has

already fallen and the additional rainfall expected, a Flood Watch

has been issued for Highlands County until tomorrow afternoon. We

will have to see if additional counties need to be added, but

for now, rainfall amounts have not been high enough. 



The shortwave will slow over the state tomorrow into Tuesday, 

keeping increased rain chances in the forecast. Then for mid-week, a 

pair of disturbance will rotate through the central part of the 

country, with the second one eventually pushing a cold front across 

Florida late in the week. As of now, it looks like this boundary 

will bring us some drier air for next weekend, and maybe some

slightly cooler air.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Very messy TAF forecast this afternoon as rain and a few storms will 

be possible at just about any time. Highest confidence is for this 

afternoon and is notated with TEMPOs, but do expect showers to 

linger through tomorrow as well. Any of these will likely cause 

MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys with more widespread lower clouds tonight into 

tomorrow morning. 



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

East-northeast winds to exercise caution and near advisory levels 

will remain over the waters through the next couple of days with 

increased coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms as well. Wind 

speeds will then subside Tuesday through the rest of the week with 

no further headlines expected. 



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Deep moisture will hold across the area through the next couple of 

days, bringing increased coverage of showers along with a few 

thunderstorms. No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values 

will remain above critical levels. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA  70  81  71  85 /  60  30  20  50 

FMY  71  82  71  86 /  60  60  20  60 

GIF  70  82  70  86 /  70  50  30  50 

SRQ  69  81  70  85 /  60  40  10  50 

BKV  68  83  68  86 /  60  30  20  50 

SPG  71  79  72  82 /  70  30  20  50 



&&



.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Highlands.



Gulf waters...None.



&&



$$