FXUS63 KABR 011746 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1146 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain or drizzle to continue over portions of mainly northern SD this afternoon. - Expect widespread moderate rain late Sunday night through early Tuesday. There is a 55 to 80 percent chance of receiving 2 inches or more rain by Tuesday afternoon over portions of northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. The lightest rainfall amounts, totaling generally around or less than an inch are forecast west of a line from Mobridge to Eagle Butte. - Winds out of the north will gust 45 to 55 mph late Monday afternoon into Monday evening near and west of the Missouri River, and linger over portions of south central South Dakota into early Tuesday afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 4-7 mile visibility remains over portions of northeastern SD and west central MN, with slight improvement this afternoon. Light showers or drizzle have been evident over central portions of the area, and forecast models have done a good job of highlighting this area. Low chances of precipitation had been added earlier this morning, and may be expanded. Otherwise, the main changes initially has been to adjust the chances of rain lower with a dry slot of air moving over at least the southern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon. Otherwise, limited changes were made at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 111 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026 As of 1 AM temperatures across the region are in the 40s with winds out of the south at around 10 mph. Some light showers or drizzle will continue this morning across eastern SD with little to no accumulation expected. Today will be the warmest day for the forecast period across most areas with highs in the 60s. Winds this afternoon will be out of the south and gust between 25 and 30 mph mainly west of the James River. The main focus of the forecast is still the precipitation starting late Sunday and lasting through Tuesday as a low pressure system makes its way across the forecast area. We still see widespread chances above 60% from late Sunday evening through early Tuesday morning, with chances coming to an end west to east during the day Tuesday. The chance for more than one inch between Monday and Tuesday mornings is between 75 and 95% for areas along and east of the Missouri River, only slightly less west. The chance for more than 2 inches in that same time frame has come down considerably and is now between 45 and 65% mainly east of the James River. The chance for more than 2 inches between Sunday night and Tuesday night (48 hours) is 55 to 80% mainly around and east of the Missouri River, 45% or less to the west. The cold front associated with that incoming low will make its way from northwest to southeast across the area Monday resulting in much cooler highs for north central SD, generally in the upper 50s, and a bit warmer for everyone else, generally in the low 60s. Much cooler air will move in behind the cold front and low, bringing our temperatures down to around normal, or highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds are still looking to be strong with this incoming low with gusts of 35 to 40 mph spreading from west to east through the day Monday and into Tuesday. Winds of 45 to 55 mph will be possible along and west of the Missouri River. These higher end gusts will slowly come to an end through the day Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will start us out at PIR, but MVFR ceilings are still listed as a TEMPO through mid afternoon. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings are expected through early Monday morning assteady rain moves overhead from the southwest. Expect low end IFR to LIFR conditions at all sites by 11Z Monday. A dry slot moving in Monday afternoon may briefly bring at least PIR back to high end IFR to MVFR ceilings. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...06 DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...06