FXUS63 KABR 012001

AFDABR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Aberdeen SD

201 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light rain over central SD this evening will become moderate and 

expand across northeastern SD and west central MN overnight. The 

steady rain will become more scattered/spotty Monday afternoon 

before filling back in Monday night. A few rumbles of thunder are 

possible. 



- There is a 25 to 40% chance of 3" or more rain through Tuesday, 

and an 80% chance of 2" or more from south central to northeastern 

SD. 



- Winds out of the north will gust 45 to 55 mph late Monday 

afternoon into Monday evening near and west of the Missouri River, 

and linger over portions of south central South Dakota into Tuesday 

afternoon.



- A 30-50% chance of light rain will remain over northeastern SD and 

west central MN through the day Wednesday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 201 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



The 19Z weather map shows 1002mb surface low over WY and northern CO 

and 1034mb high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic region. As we 

moving into the evening hours we'll see the low to our southwest 

becoming better organized and deepen to 994mb over northeastern CO 

by 06Z Monday. Light to steady moderate rain will begin to surge 

northeast across the forecast area late this evening and overnight. 



Expect less of a cool down tonight, with temperatures remaining in 

the 50s. due to plenty of clouds and warmer air pushing in ahead of 

the surface low. Winds will also remain slightly mixed, with no 

significant temperature inversion setting up overnight. Record or 

near record warm low temperatures are forecast tonight, particularly 

at ABR where the record is a weak 44 degrees from 1990. Temperatures 

will struggle to drop below 55 degrees tonight over much of the area.



A low level 40-55kt jet will set up over our western zones 

overnight, central forecast area Monday morning, and over the east 

into early Monday afternoon. The low level jet will be under a 

stratus deck. Unlike the overnight, there will be less mixing 

during the day. 



One concern to the steady all-day precipitation will be a dry slot 

that is looking more and more likely 12-14Z from around PIR south 

and expanding across much of the area south of U.S. Highway 12. Most 

of the CAMs keep the precipitation pivoting over Corson County, but 

we will see this trends over time. Some convective attributes start 

to show up Monday afternoon into the evening hours over portions of 

central SD. We remain in the general thunderstorm outlook from SPC 

for tonight, with the line shifting mainly east of the Eagle Butte 

to Eureka area. So, if any thunderstorms do develop in the dry slot 

on on the edge, they will have the potential to produce brief heavy 

rain. PW values max out around 1.5 to 1.6in starting over our 

southern counties at 06Z Monday and expanding across northeastern SD 

and west central MN by 12Z Monday before exiting northeast late 

Monday afternoon. These PW values are above normal for this time of 

year, and closer to records for the first half of October.



A tight pressure gradient Monday afternoon-evening and pressure 

rises will peak over western SD will help promote strong gusty 

winds. A Wind Advisory may be needed either late afternoon, if we 

end up mixing the stronger winds down, or later Monday evening for 

areas near and west of the Missouri River. It still looks like winds 

will gust 45-55mph Monday night into early Tuesday, lingering into 

Tuesday afternoon over Jones/Lyman Counties.



Total precipitation wise, there is now a larger range in the 25th-

75th percentiles, showing the at the spread is becoming larger and 

therefore confidence in any specific number is decreasing. Much of 

this is due to the differences in the main camps with the GEFS 

solutions being farther west, GEPS farther east, and EC Ensembles 

being somewhere in the middle. The differences in the operational 

GFS/Canadian/EC are large enough to highlight this lower confidence, 

especially where a dry slot may set up. While the steady rain ends 

Tuesday, we still have chances of rain lingering into Wednesday 

evening over portions of northeastern SD/west central MN. Dry 

weather is then forecast through next Sunday.



After highs in the 60s today and Monday, highs will top out in the 

40s through the rest of the work week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG



VFR conditions will start us out at PIR, but MVFR ceilings are

still listed as a TEMPO through mid afternoon. Otherwise, MVFR

ceilings are expected through early Monday morning as steady

rain moves overhead from the southwest. Expect low end IFR to 

LIFR conditions at all sites by 11Z Monday. A dry slot moving in

Monday afternoon may briefly bring at least PIR back to high end

IFR to MVFR ceilings.



&&



.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...06

AVIATION...06