FXUS63 KARX 011753 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1153 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain for early this week with a good chance at seeing at least 1" of rain (>70%). - Temperatures remain above normal with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s for early this week then trending slightly cooler for the rest of the week with highs staying in the mid 50s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026 Today - Wednesday: Drier Today with Widespread Rain for Early Next Week The trough responsible for the light rain we had the past two days, moves off to the east this morning. A shortwave impulse of energy does pass through the CWA this morning that could lead to some rain showers developing (10 to 20%), mainly north of I-90. All precipitation chances diminish by late morning. Shortwave ridging arrives for the rest of the day and into Monday as stronger warm air advection causes temperatures to rise back into mid 60s. Heading into Monday, the forecast remains on track for a longwave trough to move over our region through at least midweek. A surface low forms in the north-central Plains and lifts off to the northeast on Monday. Abundant moisture will be in place as the NAEFS percentiles for PWATs remain in the 99th to maximum percentile as PWATs of 1.4 to 1.7 are expected. This will lead to widespread rainfall for much of early this week. Some forecast soundings and ensemble members do show a couple hundred joules of MUCAPE that could be enough to have some isolated thunderstorms develop on both Monday and Tuesday. The location of the heaviest rain continues to be off to our northwest, however there remains a good chance (>70%) for at least an inch across the CWA with a lower chance (10%) for higher rain totals in the 2 to 3" range. While we will see a strong push of southwesterly flow into the region, temperatures should stay in the low 60s for highs and low to mid 50s for lows given the cloud cover and constant rain. Thursday - The Weekend: Trending Drier with Above Normal Temperatures As the low moves away on Thursday, there is a chance that we could see some wrap around rain showers and as such, the NBM loaded in some 20 to 40% PoPs for Thursday. There a couple of waves that move through the Upper Midwest, however it is too far out to see if the will have any impact or rain chances for the region. Cluster analysis looks to support a split flow where the polar jet stays off to our north and the subtropical jet to our south. This would result in temperatures staying above normal, around 10 degrees or so, resulting in highs staying in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1153 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 VFR conditions this afternoon and evening will give way to MVFR conditions overnight ahead of an incoming weather disturbance. As this disturbance moves closer to the region, cigs will continue to fall with increasing chances for showers, eventually with showers trending prevailing by late morning on Monday. Additionally, there are high probabilities (60-80% in the recent HREF) for cigs to fall to IFR levels during the morning hours across much of the region on Monday. Additionally, IFR vsbys may accompany heavier showers at times. Winds will increase from the southeast to around 5-15 kts during the morning on Monday with gusts as high as 30 kts across unsheltered areas of southeast Minnesota and northeast IA. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...Naylor