FXUS63 KBIS 012123 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 323 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain will spread from southwest to northeast over North Dakota overnight, with rain continuing through Monday. There are high chances(over 80 percent) for one inch of rainfall or more generally along and south of Interstate 94. - Gusty northerly winds develop on Monday, possibly becoming strong over far southern parts of the area. - Near to above average temperatures and drier weather are favored later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Current surface analysis places deepening low over Colorado into Wyoming, while tilted ridge remains orientated through the Great Lakes into Ontario/central Manitoba. Upper level analysis places deep trough approaching the western fringes of the Rockies, with a low remaining closed off over Nevada. Over our area, moist south/southeast flow continues to keep low cloud cover throughout the state while temperatures remain quite mild. For tonight, surface low will continue to deepen before ejecting out over Nebraska overnight, nudging into central South Dakota, as upper trough slides over the Rockies. Precipitation that is already starting to develop over western South Dakota nudging into southeast Montana will continue to push northeasterly and spread out in coverage. As we go through the night, rain showers will eventually push throughout the state. On Monday, low gradually lifts to the southeast crossing near the intersection of ND/SD/MN late afternoon into the early evening, while upper trough pushes easterly and starts to close off nearly stacking the system. Widespread rain continues through the day before starting to taper off over the west overnight as the low slides into Minnesota. Low then loiters over Minnesota for Tuesday. The overall track of the system is a bit slower and stretching a bit further west. Therefore, rainfall chances have broadened and increased. Latest NBM guidance is now giving about an 80 percent or greater chance of seeing one inch or more of rain along and south of Interstate 94, and a 60 percent or greater chance of seeing two inches or more along and southeast of a line from Jamestown to Wishek. Along with the precipitation, winds will be on the increase later Monday into Monday night as the low lifts on its way. Latest NBM continues to suggest the possibility of advisory criteria wind gusts (45 mph) over mainly the southern 1/3 of our area, but a look at forecast soundings continues to show question as to whether this could be realized given lack of mixing. Therefore, will hold off on any products for now and give it another look overnight. Quieter weather sets up over the area mid-week, though a few rain showers remain possible on Wednesday over our eastern locations given the loitering low over Minnesota. Mainly dry conditions then expected through he remainder of the week, with near to above average temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Ceilings will lift to IFR and possibly low-end MVFR this afternoon before falling back to IFR/LIFR later tonight. Rain will begin moving into to southwest North Dakota this evening and spread across most of the state by the end of the forecast period. MVFR to IFR visibility can be expected with the rain. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS