FXUS63 KDMX 012339 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 539 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal Risk for severe weather for Monday evening. Severe risk extends into the after dark hours. Damaging winds and a tornado or two are possible. - Rain and storms remain possible Tuesday. Rain chances extend into Thursday for at least northern Iowa. - Highs cool midweek with highs in the 40s possible for northern Iowa. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 141 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Some peaks of sun brought temporary relief from the rain today. Highs will top out in the mid 60s. Clouds are starting to fill in from the south and will cover the area starting tonight. The western CONUS trough will eject into the Central Plains Monday, ushering in moisture advection ahead of it. That advection wing arrives after midnight tonight, bringing a few tenths of an inch of rain to northern and northwest Iowa. The low pressure will move across southeast SD. Showers and storms will be common in the warm sector through the day and the main severe threat will come late in the evening in the form of a low-topped QLCS along the cold front. As has been the case leading up to the event, shear favors organized storms and tornadoes, but the thermodynamics limit the extent and intensity of both threats. Due to a saturated PBL with dew points in the 60s, it may take time for the surface to decouple, extending the wind and tornado threat into the overnight hours. This is why the Marginal Risk was extended into more of southern Iowa. Speaking of moisture, the other factor will be the efficient rainfall. The cold front will slow down overnight due to the trough wrapping up and stalling, meaning widespread rainfall amounts between 1 and 2" are likely over southeast Iowa. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 141 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 The stalled upper low will sink towards Iowa on Tuesday and its dry slot will rode the midlevel clouds and allow for some of the stratus to mix out. The cold front will exit the area in the early morning and add to the mixing potential with CAA. Post-frontal storms will be possible as low-level lapse rates steepen and will contribute to the gusty winds that afternoon. Storms could trend stronger if the dry slot comes more north into the state, allowing for lapse rates in the midlevels to steepen out once more. Wednesday and Thursday have trended colder. This is because the upper low will park right over Iowa Wednesday and all but guarantee stratus and rain until the TROWAL departs late Thursday. Highs may very well trend down and into the 40s. Highs will recover back into the 50s and 60s once the flow resumes a southerly component. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Largely MVFR conditions are prevailing across Central Iowa with this TAF issuance. Along with lowered CIGS, brief reductions in VSBY is occurring as patchy drizzle is moving from south to north. Terminals are expected to remain MVFR through much of the overnight before IFR CIGs and and increasing shower and storm chances increase toward 12Z. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected throughout the day as a surface low approaches from the west. Along with showers and storms, strong southeasterly winds are forecast to develop mid-morning. Sustained winds from around 20 knots are expected with gusts upwards of 25 to 30 knots and almost 35 knots at KMCW. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Jimenez LONG TERM...Jimenez AVIATION...Vorst