FXUS63 KDTX 012047 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 347 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild and mostly cloudy through the early week. - Near record warmth and breezy on Tuesday. - Increasing likelihood for light rainfall on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... A background of rising geopotential heights dominates the forecast over the next 24 hours as a longwave ridge builds in downstream of an amplified Pacific wave tracking over the Rockies. A weak disturbance embedded within the ridge is noted in WV imagery across the western Great Lakes this afternoon. Apart from a few light showers that will be possible near the Ohio border, this wave will pass overhead with little fanfare tonight given continued dry advection within light low-level southerly flow. Mid-level cloud cover will remain prevalent, keeping temps mild in the mid 40s and lower 50s for an overnight low. Low pressure takes shape over the central/northern Plains on Monday while SE MI remains under the stable influence of deep layer ridging. There is a brief window for mostly sunny skies in the morning, then a mid-level shortwave emanating from the low helps usher in a ridge of sfc-700mb theta-e with increasing low cloud cover in the afternoon. Ascent within the saturated layer is weak but enough confidence exists to warrant a 15 to 30% chance of light showers or drizzle Monday evening and overnight. Another period of height rises ensues daytime Tuesday as the mid- level wave closes off over the upper Midwest. This favors dry, breezy, and very warm conditions on Tuesday as the upstream system ushers in 850mb temps of 12 to 13C, which model soundings indicate may be briefly mixed to. This sends highs into the mid 70s, some 15 degrees above normal and near daily max temp records. Latest NBM advertises a 40% chance to exceed 75 degrees for much of SE MI. The mature system's warm conveyor belt inches in from the west early Wednesday with models in agreement on light rainfall arriving by late morning or early afternoon. 70 to 90% PoP looks good with guidance in line with QPF on the order of 0.25". A narrow corridor of weak instability will exist just ahead of the cold front Wednesday evening, supportive of an isolated rumble of thunder. With the later frontal passage, high temps Wednesday will again be very mild in the lower 70s. By Thursday and Friday, progressively cooler conditions settle in amidst scattered light showers as the occluded low meanders over the region. && .MARINE... Low pressure coming out of the Four Corners region will lift northeast into the western Great Lakes late Tuesday. This will lead to increasing southerly winds over the central Great Lakes, with gusts of 25 to 30 knots expected over the open waters of Lake Huron Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm air (lower teens at 850 MB) should keep mixing depths in check, but brief isolated gusts above 30 knots cab not be ruled. Enough moisture is expected to advect into the Great Lakes region to support widespread showers on Wednesday. Additional scattered showers are possible on Thursday as cold cyclonic flow behind the cold front kicks in. The low pressure looks to weaken as it tracks across Lake Superior and the Upper Peninsula on Thursday. This should result in northwest to north winds staying under 25 knots Thursday night onto Friday. However, with the long northerly fetch and cold air, waves building to 4 feet or greater over the southern lake Huron basin are likely. && .CLIMATE... Record high max temperatures for November 3rd: Detroit: 76 Degrees (Set in 2015) Flint: 79 Degrees (Set in 2015) Saginaw: 74 Degrees (Set in 2015) && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1125 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 AVIATION... The 12Z DTX sounding showed very dry air in the low levels, courtesy of the strong high pressure system centered over the Mid Atlantic. The region of low level dry air will persist across Se Mi through daybreak Monday. Meanwhile, west-southwest flow aloft will sustain an influx of higher based clouds through the TAF period. The gradient flow will support continued light south-southeast winds into Monday morning. For DTW...Available guidance and regional observations indicate high probabilities that ceiling heights will remain above 5000 feet today and tonight. Sub 5000 ft cloud based courtesy of low level moisture advection will arrive late Monday morning morning as a more southerly flow drives the low level moisture now residing across the Lower Ohio Valley into Se Mi. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High in ceilings aob 5000 ft late Monday morning and afternoon. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TF MARINE.......SF CLIMATE......TF AVIATION.....SC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.