FXUS63 KDVN 011810 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1210 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A large storm system will move through the Midwest the first half of the week. Behind the system, spotty rain showers will be possible for the second half of the work week. - Although cooler, temperatures will continue to average above normal for early November. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Weak disturbances will keep plenty of clouds around today along with sprinkles or small areas of rain showers. The cloud cover and rain will help suppress temperatures (similar to Saturday) but still above normal for early November. Clouds will further increase and lower tonight as moisture from the developing storm system begins moving into the area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Monday through Wednesday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence on a storm system bringing some rain to the area along with warmer than normal temperatures. Although there are differences between the global models, they have been consistent in taking the center of the significant system well to the west of the area. The net result will be much warmer than normal temperatures for the area along with windy conditions. Periodic rounds of rain will be seen with the best chances being Monday night into Tuesday. The overall timing for the best chances for rain also agrees with the surge of moisture from the Pacific along with some from the Gulf. The model PWATs with the moisture surge are 1.5+ inches which would exceed the local sounding climatology. Such moisture also yields a high probability of locally heavy rainfall, especially with any thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be possible since we'll be in the warm sector of the storm. The signal for strong to severe storms is mixed but various ML runs suggests a severe potential in the Plains. Back in eastern Iowa the signal is being lost in the overall background noise. Once the main cold front and a secondary low sweep through the area on Wednesday, spotty showers and sprinkles will be possible the second half of the work week. Temperatures through the entire week will average above normal for early November. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1155 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Ceilings will deteriorate later this evening into tonight first to MVFR and then IFR between 09-12Z/Mon. Not much rain is anticipated, aside from isolated showers overnight and the potential for some drizzle Monday AM. The IFR ceilings are expected to last through Monday morning with southeast winds increasing to 15-25 kts. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Uttech