FXUS63 KFGF 012356

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

556 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Widespread rain is expected across the region Monday through 

  Wednesday. Best chances for 1+ inch of rain will be in 

  southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota.



- Breezy north winds are likely late Monday night into Tuesday,

  with gusts upwards of 40 mph at times.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 401 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



...Synopsis...



Widespread cloud cover remains in place across much of the Northern 

Plains and Upper Midwest. Temperatures this afternoon are in the 60s 

where broken cloud cover is observed, with temps otherwise in the 

50s. Ridging continues to exit the area this evening with satellite 

imagery showing the development of a deep H5 trough moving into the 

southwestern CONUS. This trough will continue to the northeast, 

eventually combining with an upper low moving southward out of 

Canada. This will be the source of widespread rain Monday through 

Wednesday across a large part of the area. Cooler temps and breezy 

winds are expected Tuesday into Wednesday, with another surge of 

cooler temps also late Wednesday into Thursday.



...Heavy Rain Monday through Wednesday...



Warm air and moisture advection ahead our next system support the 

continued mention of rainfall totals exceeding 1 inch across a large 

portion of the area. Best chances of seeing over 1 inch remain 

consistently in southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota; 

however, recent RRFS and ensemble analysis are hinting at a slight 

shift to the north. In either case, rainfall totals of 2-3 inches 

are possible where deformation bands form as the low inflects and 

moves northeastward Monday through Wednesday. 



...Breezy North Winds Tuesday...



Much cooler advects into eastern North Dakota and northwest 

Minnesota late Monday into Tuesday as winds shift to the north on 

the western side of the upper low. At this time, wind gusts look to 

remain just on the lower end of advisory level, ranging from 35-40 

mph on Tuesday.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 556 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



IFR to LIFR is in the process of returning this evening. By late

tonight, all terminals will again be in the IFR to LIFR range.

Rain will also start late tonight into Monday morning. This will

drive down visibility into the IFR range. Rain will be

persistent and widespread, lasting all day Monday through the 

end of the TAF period. Winds will pick up out the south/east on 

Monday, with gusts occasionally approaching 20 knots during the 

afternoon hours at most terminals. 



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Lynch

AVIATION...Rafferty