FXUS63 KGRB 011740

AFDGRB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

1140 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Unsettled conditions much of next week, with widespread showers

  (+90%) and gusty winds Monday afternoon through Wednesday,

  peaking Monday night into Election Day.



- The probability of 48-hour rainfall totals over 1" from Monday

  afternoon through Wednesday afternoon range from 60-90% north

  and west of the Fox Valley to 40-60% over Fox Valley east to

  Lake Michigan.



- Above normal temperatures continue through next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026



A few isolated showers are lingering along the WI/UP border and 

across northern Door Co late this evening. As the forcing driving 

these showers shifts east overnight expect a return to dry conditions

to finish out the weekend. Tonight patchy areas of fog will 

likely develop, mainly across central WI where partial clearing of

a low stratus deck occurs. However, with the increasing cloud 

cover early Sunday don't expect fog to become particularly dense 

or widespread. 



Next round of impactful will arrive Monday afternoon/evening and 

sticks around into at least Thursday as a moisture rich low 

pressure system lifts out of the Central Plains. Rain becomes 

likely (+90%) Monday night into Tuesday with the initial surge of 

moisture and forcing. Then chance/likely PoPs (40-70%) will 

continue through Wednesday, before finally taper off Thursday as 

the system finally exits to our east. Another system lifting north

at the end of next week could continue to rain chances into 

Friday; however, this is less certain as the models differ in how 

far west this system makes it.



Chances for exceeding 1 inch of rain Monday Night through Tuesday 

has increased a bit to 70-90% north and west of the Fox Valley with 

40-60% over Fox Valley east to Lake Michigan. The probability for 2 

inches or more is also a respectable 30-60% across central and north-

central Wisconsin during this same period. This set up appears to 

look like a soaking rain at times. Some elevated instability and 

impressive dynamics with the initial WAA surge Monday night into 

Tuesday to include some thunder, especially across central and north-

central Wisconsin. 



Temperatures will be above normal through the middle of next week

with temperatures cooling off behind the large system at the end 

of the week.



&&



.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance

Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



VFR conditions with SCT to BKN mid and high level clouds are 

expected to prevail across the region through late tonight. Cigs

will lower to MVFR after 13z Mon ahead of the next system 

expected to bring periods of light to moderate rain, gusty winds, 

LLWS, and poor flying conditions from Monday afternoon through 

Wednesday.



Southerly winds will remain under 10 kts through the majority of

this TAF period. Southeasterly winds will then increase toward

the end of this TAF period, gusting to 15-18kts.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026



A slow moving low pressure system will move across the Great 

Lakes Monday night into Wednesday morning, bringing gusty south to

southeast winds and large waves on the bay and Lake Michigan. A 

Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. A few gale force gusts

are possible Tuesday on Lake Michigan.



Winds will shift to the north on Thursday, possibly gusting to 

near 25 kts as the system departs to the east.



&&



.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION.....GK

AVIATION.......Kruk

MARINE.........GK