FXUS63 KGRB 012337 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 537 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of rain, gusty winds, and a few rumbles of thunder from late Monday afternoon through Thursday, peaking Monday night through Tuesday evening. Probabilities to reach or exceed 1 inch are 65-95% north and west of the Fox Valley, and 45-65% in the Fox Valley east to Lake Michigan from Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. - Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday, falling to normal to end the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Periods of Rain Monday-Thursday...Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of today and tonight with clouds increasing late tonight ahead of the next system. This system is expected to bring periods of light to moderate rain, gusty winds, and a few rumbles of thunder between late Monday afternoon/evening through Thursday. Southerly flow will usher in above normal PWATs around 1.5-1.6 inches from Monday evening through Tuesday evening, when the biggest surge of moisture is expected. PWATs and rain intensity decrease Tuesday night through Thursday, as low-level winds gradually turn westerly, cutting off Gulf moisture. A few rumbles of thunder from elevated storms are possible at times, mainly on Tuesday, given a couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, but strong/severe storms are not expected. Given the prolonged with periods of rain, a washout is not expected. But, the drought laden areas across the north could see some relief as probabilities for 1 inch or more of rain are 65-95% for locations north and west of the Fox Valley, with 45-65% in the Fox Valley east to Lake Michigan from Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. The probability for 2 inches or more decreased slightly from the previous forecast with 25-55% for locations north and west of the Fox Valley. However, additional light rain is expected after Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as well. Temperatures...Above normal temperatures are expected through Thursday, falling to normal on Friday through the weekend (highs in the upper 40s to low 50s) following the prolonged rainy system. Tuesday will be the warmest day with highs in the mid to upper 60s, but the cloud cover and rain may cause slightly lower temperatures. A few sites may be near/set new record high minimum temperatures on Tuesday, November 3. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 537 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 VFR conditions with SCT to BKN mid and high level clouds are expected to prevail across the region through early Monday morning. Cigs will lower to MVFR after 12-13z Mon ahead of an incoming low pressure system. Flying conditions will then further deteriorate Monday afternoon as rounds of light to moderate rain, gusty southerly winds, and IFR cigs overspread the region. The poor flying conditions will likely linger at least into Tuesday. Southerly winds will remain under 10 kts through the night. Southeasterly winds will then increase Monday afternoon with gusts to 15-18kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 A slow moving low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes Monday night into Wednesday morning, bringing a prolonged period of gusty south to southeast winds and large waves on the bay and Lake Michigan. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed, especially for the Lake Michigan nearshore waters from Monday afternoon through Wednesday evening. A few gale force gusts are possible Tuesday on Lake Michigan. Winds will shift to the north on Thursday, possibly gusting to near 25 kts as the system departs to the east. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&$$ DISCUSSION.....Kruk AVIATION.......GK MARINE.........Kruk