FXUS63 KICT 011738

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

1138 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers and storms could affect central/south central Kansas late 

tonight with a strong storm possible



- Strong to severe storms possible for Monday afternoon and evening



- Near normal temperatures for Wednesday into next weekend



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 158 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



Dry and quiet weather conditions will be on tap for today with 

daytime highs slightly above normal. Meanwhile current water vapor 

satellite imagery shows a lead short wave over southern California 

with the main upper-level wave over northern California. The lead 

short wave will race northeast across the Rockies today then reach 

western Kansas by late tonight. This will spark off elevated 

showers/storms over western Kansas tonight which will then spread 

east into central/south central Kansas between 3am-6am. Elevated 

shear/instability combination is supportive for a few possible 

strong storms late tonight. Otherwise the line of showers/storms 

will continue to move slowly east Monday morning reaching southeast 

Kansas in the afternoon. The environment east of the Kansas turnpike 

could remain elevated with a few strong storms possible in the 

afternoon. Otherwise the main focus area we will be monitoring for 

surface based storm re-development is for locations west of a Salina 

to Wichita, to Wellington line between 3pm-6pm. This is where high 

resolution models(HREF/REFS) show increasing probabilities for storm 

initiation. Surface-6km wind shear and 0-1km SRH are favorable for 

organized storm development capable of producing severe weather with 

a few tornadoes possible. Shear orientation vector is parallel to 

initiating low level boundary which would cause storms to grow 

upscale into a linear storm mode with damaging winds becoming the 

main hazard. Once again the key thing to watch will be timing and 

amount of clearing for the low clouds to help destabilize the 

atmosphere. The line of storms will move east into southeast Kansas 

during the evening hours on Monday.



Upper level wave will shift northeast into eastern Nebraska on 

Tuesday with deformation wrap around rain showers in the morning 

over central Kansas along with gusty northwest winds. Dry weather 

expected on Wednesday with models showing another system racing east 

across the central plains on Thursday. Moisture will be limited with 

this system which keeps possible precipitation chances rather low. 

Long range models are showing a healthy upper-level wave diving 

southeast across the central plains on Saturday which could bring 

another chance of rain to Kansas.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1113 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



Expecting low clouds to be around for the entire period so kept

MVFR cigs at all locations. A round of storms are expected to

enter the forecast area from west to east in the 6-9Z time

frame. A few of these storms could be on the strong side and

produce gusty winds and perhaps some small hail so will have to

monitor their progression. Winds will be from the southeast and

light at the start of the period but will increase to 20 to 30 

knots towards the end.





&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...CDJ

AVIATION...SGS