FXUS63 KIWX 012326

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

626 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Some light showers or patchy drizzle and sprinkles will likely linger

  at times tonight with low chances of rain (20-30%) continuing

  into Monday. Any rainfall amounts are expected to be light.



- Very warm on Tuesday and breezy followed by increasing rain 

  chances through Wednesday (60-80% chance). 



- Rain showers may linger at times into Thursday and Friday,

  with highs cooling back to the mid-upper 50s by Friday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 230 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026



Broad isentropic ascent is ongoing this afternoon with a few pockets 

of light rain/sprinkles across northwest/central Indiana with the 

more notable area of isentropic forcing working north from central 

Indiana. As was the case yesterday subcloud layer remains relatively 

dry with stronger moisture transport over the past 24 hours 

displaced well to the west. Will likely maintain some slight chance 

PoPs as this area of stronger advective forcing lifts northward into 

this evening. This light precip may also be aided by a weak, 

slow moving mid/upper level short wave trough evident on water 

vapor imagery this afternoon across eastern Iowa/northwest 

Illinois. This initial short wave is expected to exit northwest

Ohio toward midday Monday which should allow for slight veering

of flow and some weak speed convergence at nose of stronger low

level flow Monday into Monday evening. This should provide more

favorable low level flow trajectories for better low level 

moisture transport across Mid MS Rvr valley to shift east. A few

uncertainties remain regarding precip chances for Monday 

including the strength of secondary upstream wave emanating from

larger scale western CONUS negative upper height anomaly, and 

also mid level moisture profiles may be scoured out a bit late 

tonight into early Monday with the passage of the initial wave 

with possibility of a drizzly precip type late tonight into 

Monday AM. With uncertainty into how moisture depths will play 

into afternoon/evening rain chances, will cap higher model 

blended PoPs at 20-30% for now. Highs in mid 60s Monday may be a

bit optimistic for some areas given expected shallow mixing 

heights/cloud cover.



For Monday night into Tuesday will be monitoring evolution of larger 

scale upper trough across the Four Corners region. All indications 

still suggest most of cyclogenesis occuring in lee of Rockies before 

system becomes more vertically stacked late Tuesday afternoon. 

Likely/categorical PoPs have been maintained for Tuesday night as 

primary low jet/low level moisture convergence axes shift eastward 

downstream of Central Plains upper low. Otherwise, large scale upper 

dynamics are not overly impressive with this rapidly occluding 

system with larger scale low level height falls induced by upper 

forcing largely remaining southwest of the local area. This 

evolution and fairly rapid eastward spread of low level jet

axis/mid level dry slot should keep rainfall amounts on the 

lighter side locally (quarter of an inch or less) for Tuesday 

night into Wednesday AM. Strengthening low level height gradient

should provide breezy/windy conditions with this system, 

although core of low level jet axis not arriving until Tuesday 

night may mitigate these winds somewhat. The main story with 

this system will be the much above normal temperatures and a 

potential of some locations approaching record highs for Tuesday

and record warm low temps for the date.



Temps trend cooler Wed into Thu behind the occluded front with some 

scattered showers possible Thursday as moisture depths due to 

some wrap around moisture. Even as low level thermal trough 

settles firmly across the area by Friday, highs should still be 

near normal for the date (highs in mid 50s). Medium range 

guidance spread in deterministic/ensemble solutions increases 

by this weekend with overall consensus in eastern Pacific jet 

causing flow amplification once again with another development 

of an upper low expected. Large scale baroclinicity should be 

weak, so this pattern should favor quick transition to occluded 

systems with no significant precip chances evident at this time.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 626 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026



Broad, relatively weak isentropic ascent will likely keep

pockets of very light rain and/or sprinkles around through the

TAF cycle. Low levels gradually moisture in this regime with VFR

cigs in the 5-10 kft range expected to lower into MVFR on

Monday.



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Marsili

AVIATION...Steinwedel