FXUS63 KJKL 011918 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 218 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A low potential for rain returns today and lingers into Monday morning. - A more significant system brings a higher potential for widespread rain arriving around the middle of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 942 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2026 Freshened up the forecast with the latest observational data from around the area. Downslope southeasterly winds continue to keep temperatures elevated in southeastern parts of the area, near the TN and VA border. The forecast remains on track for a shortwave to move through the area, leading to light showers. UPDATE Issued at 710 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2026 With cloud cover and downslope flow in the southeast portions of the CWA, temperatures in some locations nearer to the TN and VA border were running warmer than forecast. Hourly mainly temperature and dewpoint grids for the next few hours were freshened up based on recent observations. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 400 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2026 Early this morning, shortwave ridging extended from east of southeast US coast into the Central Appalachians to MI and was shifting eastward. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough extended from portions of the Central Conus/IA vicinity into the lower MS Valley vicinity. Behind that, shortwave ridging extended from Mexico across the Southern Plains and into parts of the Central Plains. Further west, an upper level trough continues to move into western Canada and western sections of the Conus. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure was centered in the mid Atlantic states. High and mid level clouds were passing across the region at this point. The weak returns on radar across the region at this time appear to be virga, with rather dry air in place in the low levels. Mid and high level clouds continue moving across the region though there were some breaks or thinner areas at times and temperatures as of 3 AM EST ranged from around 50 to the low 60s. Today and tonight, the shortwave ridging east of eastern KY will continue to shift to the east while the shortwave trough will approach from the west. The axis of this shortwave trough should move into eastern Ky tonight and then shift to the east on Monday morning. Sfc high pressure centered in the mid Atlantic states should gradually become centered along the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, shortwave ridging builds east in the wake of the shortwave and the axis of this ridging reaches the western Gulf to sections of the OH Valley by late Monday. Further west, the previously mentioned upper trough will work across the sections of western Canada and the western U.S. and enter the Plains/portions of the Central Conus by Monday evening. Mid and even low level moisture will gradually increase today as the shortwave trough nears, with moisture in the low and mid levels peaking from this evening to early on Monday. During that time, PW per the 00Z REFS should peak in the 1 to 1.2 inch range or about the 85th to 90th percentile. As moisture increases and the shortwave nears, light rain could reach the ground in the southwest as early as this morning, though the potential across the area peaks during the afternoon into tonight. There remains considerable uncertainty on the areal extent of rain reaching the ground as well as timing and where/if it will be measurable particularly in the southeast. There the effects of downslope low level level flow around surface high pressure centered in the mid Atlantic states and extending into parts of the Southeast should be the strongest. Chances for light rain diminish on Monday morning as the shortwave departs to the east and northeast and 500 mb height rises follow. For QPF, opted to lean higher than the NBM deterministic and toward WPC QPF for tonight to account for some of the higher 00Z deterministic guidance and 00Z HREF and 00Z REFS means. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 218 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2026 A complex, amplified weather pattern takes shape for much of the long term period, with a mean longwave trough becoming established over the center of the country midweek, gradually transitioning east as shortwave disturbances round the base of this trough from Wednesday through Friday and/or Saturday. A relatively strong cold front will be pushed east by a pair of lead shortwaves, approaching Tuesday and Wednesday and crossing the area Wednesday night through Thursday. The surface front will be weakening as it approaches as the shortwaves will be quite progressive and lifting quickly northeast through the Ohio Valley towards the Lower Great Lakes and northern Mid-Atlantic regions. Models are struggling with the handling, timing, and strength of the individual waves past this time with a relatively high- amplitude short-wavelength wave pattern over the region Friday through next weekend. Thus, while the NBM generally trends dry for the second half of Friday through Sunday, it would not be surprising to see changes to the PoP forecast during this time period as models hopefully gain clarity on the pattern as in the coming days. The main weather impacts will be the potential for some breezy to perhaps windy conditions as the front approaches Tuesday night through Wednesday as the pressure gradient gets squeezed across the Southern Appalachians, with LREF probabilities approaching a max of around 35 percent for 40 mph gusts Wednesday over the Black Mountain area, with 5 to 10 percent probabilities toward Wayne County and the Lake Cumberland areas. Otherwise, the other impact to watch for is the low potential for heavy rain and perhaps some thunder with a precipitation band associated with the arrival of the cold front. Low-level flow will be southerly to southeasterly, which will mitigate the heavy rain threat downwind of the Cumberland Mountains the farther east one goes, but western and southwestern counties in our forecast area may see enough of a threat to warrant a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall despite antecedent very dry conditions over the last 2 to 3 weeks. Attention then turns to the next shortwave which moves quickly east across the center of the country and rounds the base of the longwave trough Thursday. Shortwave ridging looks to briefly cross the area later Friday into Saturday, but latest model runs suggest another strong shortwave digging southeast toward the area later Saturday into Sunday of next week, so increased uncertainty exists at the tail end of the long term period. Strong warm advection ahead of the cold front will allow for temperatures to spike well into the 70s Tuesday, with the potential for a few 80-degree readings immediately downwind of the Cumberland Mountains across southeastern Kentucky. Lows Tuesday night are likely to be quite mild as warm advection and downslope drying continue, with readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s, though eastern valleys may be able to dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s if sufficient good radiational cooling can occur during Tuesday evening. Wednesday's highs will again reach the 70s for highs, though clouds and the approaching cold front and associated precipitation will keep highs from reaching Tuesday's levels. A cooldown commences behind the frontal passage Thursday into Friday, though the mean longwave trough remaining to the west will keep the upper flow west to southwesterly until upstream ridging moves over the area later Friday into early Saturday. This will then allow for lows to drop back into the 30s and40s for Friday night and Saturday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 122 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2026 Currently, VFR conditions are being observed, with some mid- and high-level clouds streaming over the area from the southwest. An approaching system from the southwest will bring rain chances to the forecast area later this afternoon through early Monday. Expect a combination of VFR and MVFR conditions with periods of rain showers. Some guidance has been very aggressive with the duration of rainfall. Confidence remains low in these solutions. Winds will remain light and variable through the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GINNICK SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...CMC AVIATION...GINNICK