FXUS63 KJKL 012054 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 354 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A passing system may produce light showers across western portions of the area through Monday morning. - A more significant system brings a higher potential for widespread rain arriving around the middle of the week. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 355 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2026 As of 2030Z, mid- and high-level clouds were observed streaming into the area from the southwest on visible satellite. Some light showers are starting to be observed across the area as well. Temperatures were running in the upper 60s to low 70s. A shortwave system continues to work through the region this afternoon, bringing shower chances to eastern Kentucky through tonight. A warm front will push northeast into the western portions of the area overnight into Monday. South-to-southwesterly flow with this warm front will allow for more moisture-rich air to advect into the area. PWATs will increase to 1.1-1.2 inches Monday morning - falling between the 90th and 95th percentiles. Models are a bit all over the place when it comes to rainfall amounts. That said, confidence is high that rainfall will be heaviest west of I-75 and will likely remain under 0.40 inches, with the 12Z HREF showing a 20-60% chance of exceeding 0.40 inches in this area. Most locations will see totals at or under a tenth of an inch. Forecast uncertainty remains centered on Monday's high temperatures. The NBM came in aggressively warm with area-wide upper 60s to lower 70s, likely driven by a warm ECMWF suite. This seems to overlook lingering cloud cover across the north as the shortwave lifts northeast. Preference was to blend heavily toward short- range guidance (HRRR, NAM, RRFS, and RAP), which confines the upper 60s to low 70s to far southeastern Kentucky where downslope southeasterly flow will likely yield warmer temperatures, while keeping our northern counties capped in the low 60s to account for the lingering clouds. As skies clear heading into Monday night, the boundary layer should decouple across the sheltered eastern valleys. This will establish a modest ridge-valley temperature split, with lows dipping into the upper 40s in the coldest hollows while ridges and western locations stay in the mid-50s. Patchy valley fog will also be favored across the deeper river basins of far eastern Kentucky toward daybreak. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 218 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2026 A complex, amplified weather pattern takes shape for much of the long term period, with a mean longwave trough becoming established over the center of the country midweek, gradually transitioning east as shortwave disturbances round the base of this trough from Wednesday through Friday and/or Saturday. A relatively strong cold front will be pushed east by a pair of lead shortwaves, approaching Tuesday and Wednesday and crossing the area Wednesday night through Thursday. The surface front will be weakening as it approaches as the shortwaves will be quite progressive and lifting quickly northeast through the Ohio Valley towards the Lower Great Lakes and northern Mid-Atlantic regions. Models are struggling with the handling, timing, and strength of the individual waves past this time with a relatively high- amplitude short-wavelength wave pattern over the region Friday through next weekend. Thus, while the NBM generally trends dry for the second half of Friday through Sunday, it would not be surprising to see changes to the PoP forecast during this time period as models hopefully gain clarity on the pattern as in the coming days. The main weather impacts will be the potential for some breezy to perhaps windy conditions as the front approaches Tuesday night through Wednesday as the pressure gradient gets squeezed across the Southern Appalachians, with LREF probabilities approaching a max of around 35 percent for 40 mph gusts Wednesday over the Black Mountain area, with 5 to 10 percent probabilities toward Wayne County and the Lake Cumberland areas. Otherwise, the other impact to watch for is the low potential for heavy rain and perhaps some thunder with a precipitation band associated with the arrival of the cold front. Low-level flow will be southerly to southeasterly, which will mitigate the heavy rain threat downwind of the Cumberland Mountains the farther east one goes, but western and southwestern counties in our forecast area may see enough of a threat to warrant a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall despite antecedent very dry conditions over the last 2 to 3 weeks. Attention then turns to the next shortwave which moves quickly east across the center of the country and rounds the base of the longwave trough Thursday. Shortwave ridging looks to briefly cross the area later Friday into Saturday, but latest model runs suggest another strong shortwave digging southeast toward the area later Saturday into Sunday of next week, so increased uncertainty exists at the tail end of the long term period. Strong warm advection ahead of the cold front will allow for temperatures to spike well into the 70s Tuesday, with the potential for a few 80-degree readings immediately downwind of the Cumberland Mountains across southeastern Kentucky. Lows Tuesday night are likely to be quite mild as warm advection and downslope drying continue, with readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s, though eastern valleys may be able to dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s if sufficient good radiational cooling can occur during Tuesday evening. Wednesday's highs will again reach the 70s for highs, though clouds and the approaching cold front and associated precipitation will keep highs from reaching Tuesday's levels. A cooldown commences behind the frontal passage Thursday into Friday, though the mean longwave trough remaining to the west will keep the upper flow west to southwesterly until upstream ridging moves over the area later Friday into early Saturday. This will then allow for lows to drop back into the 30s and 40s for Friday night and Saturday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 122 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2026 Currently, VFR conditions are being observed, with some mid- and high-level clouds streaming over the area from the southwest. An approaching system from the southwest will bring rain chances to the forecast area later this afternoon through early Monday. Expect a combination of VFR and MVFR conditions with periods of rain showers. Some guidance has been very aggressive with the duration of rainfall. Confidence remains low in these solutions. Winds will remain light and variable through the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...CMC AVIATION...GINNICK