FXUS63 KPAH 011735

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1135 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Rain will linger across the Quad State area through this 

  evening with the greatest chances (50-70%) this morning. The 

  heaviest totals are expected across west KY. 



- Another round of widespread rainfall will arrive Tuesday, 

  then linger through at least Wednesday evening. Forecast 

  rainfall totals are in the 1 to 2 inch range. Roughly a 60-80%

  chance of seeing 1 inch or more of rain for that time range.



- South winds will become gusty on Tuesday with gusts in the 30

  to 40 mph range possible. There is a 50-70% chance of max wind

  gusts reaching or exceeding 30 mph on Tuesday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 126 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



Light rain will continue steadily this morning before becoming more 

scattered this afternoon. Chances will be around 50-70% for the 

morning before dropping to around 20-30%  this afternoon and 

tonight. An additional quarter inch or so of rainfall will be 

possible through roughly noon today and mainly across SEMO into west 

KY.



The trend continues to shift toward a more northern solution with an 

approaching strong upper-level low and surface low Monday night 

through Wednesday. Ensemble guidance continues to hint at a better 

chance of seeing substantial rainfall with around a 60-80% chance of 

the Quad State seeing an inch or more of rain Monday night through 

Wednesday evening. PWAT values are forecast to be around 200-300% of 

normal for this time of year, so very heavy downpours are expected 

Tuesday afternoon. Fortunately, the system will move along

quickly enough to limit the overall threat for flooding. Gusty 

winds will likely develop from the south as the pressure 

gradient tightens ahead of the approaching cold front. In fact, 

there is around a 50-70% chance that max wind gusts reach or 

exceed 30 mph across the area on Tuesday. Overall instability 

looks to be fairly meager with the system with widespread 

rainfall and cloud cover, so trending a bit lower for severe 

weather probabilities across our area. Shear is progged to be

around 40kts or better, so any increase in instability with

dewpoints pushing into the 60s could result in at least some

severe weather potential Tuesday afternoon. It's worth keeping

an eye on for now.



Conditions dry out for the end of next week with seasonable 

temperatures expected.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



IFR/LIFR drizzle will linger through the entire period at KCGI

and KPAH. KPAH could see some brief periods of MVFR this

afternoon. The drizzle will spread north over the other sites 

early this afternoon. At KMVN the drizzle may not last much 

past this afternoon, but IFR ceilings are expected to linger 

well into the morning. KEVV and KOWB will see occasional 

drizzle/light rain through daybreak. At this time, the 

prevailing category should be MVFR, with some brief periods of 

IFR possible. Winds will be from the southeast at or below 10kts

throughout the forecast.



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

MO...None.

IN...None.

KY...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...KC

AVIATION...DRS