FXUS63 KTOP 011929

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

129 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A strong system brings the potential for severe thunderstorms 

  Monday late afternoon into the evening.



- More seasonable temperatures build in Tuesday through the end of 

  the week with mainly dry conditions.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 129 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a potent trough across the 

western CONUS with broad southwesterly flow stretching from the 

Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains. An expansive area of low 

clouds remains in place across the region this afternoon, which has 

limited heating and only expect a couple additional degrees of 

warming. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and 

weak instability this afternoon and evening, which could lead to the 

development of isolated showers. The aforementioned western trough 

advances east tonight into Monday with a deepening low across the 

High Plains tightening the pressure gradient. Abundant cloud 

cover and strengthening boundary-layer winds will keep 

temperatures mild overnight, with lows around 60. 



A lead shortwave ejects northeast across the Central Plains Monday 

morning with guidance in decent agreement in this wave leading to a 

round of showers and storms that moves from west to east across the 

forecast area through early afternoon. Severe weather is not expected

with this round, although precipitation could bring gusty winds to

the surface. Stronger forcing comes through the day Monday as the

longwave trough approaches and low-level flow increases. Southerly

winds will increase to near advisory levels with gusts 35-40 MPH

through the day. The progression of the initial round of precipitation

will impact when and where convection develops during the late 

afternoon and evening and how it evolves into the early overnight

hours. Cloud cover is expected to hold across most of the forecast

area with the most likely location for clearing and more substantial

destabilization across south central Kansas into Oklahoma, near

the dryline. Convective initiation is favored in this location 

during the late afternoon before rapid upscale growth appears 

likely given the strong forcing. Fast storm motions (40-50 MPH 

to the northeast) will bring this activity into northeast 

Kansas fairly quickly during the evening hours, most likely as a

line or broken line. Deep shear magnitudes are robust, but 

hodographs are rather disorganized with the most impressive 

shear limited to the lowest 2km. With that, considerable 0-1km 

storm relative helicity values (250-300 m2/s2) will favor 

rotation in storms, either in embedded supercells or as 

mesovorticies along the leading edge of a line. Uncertainty 

remains regarding intensity of storms, but the strength of the 

low-level shear does lead to the potential for damaging wind 

gusts and a couple of tornadoes. PWATs of 1.5-1.75" supports 

efficient rainfall rates as well, but the progressive nature of 

storms should limit the flooding potential. The most likely 

timeframe for severe weather is 5-11 PM before the strongest 

storms exit the area to the east. 



The closed low is progged to slow in its eastward progression for 

Tuesday, with wrap-around precipitation and cloud cover lingering 

through the day before the closed low pulls farther away. Another 

compact shortwave follows closely behind on Thursday, but moisture 

may be limited and leads to only low chances for precipitation. 

Temperatures become more seasonable Tuesday through the end of the 

week with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026



Cigs have largely become MVFR and think MVFR cigs will dominate

the period,although intermittent scattering of the low cloud 

deck is possible. Winds increase from the south overnight and 

become gusty Monday morning with gusts around 30kts expected 

through the day. A line of showers and storms is progged to move

into terminals late in the period. Input a best guess on timing

and impacts, but coverage and timing is varied among guidance.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Flanagan

AVIATION...Flanagan