FXUS64 KBMX 020021 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 621 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 611 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2026 - Mid Week Focus: Keep an eye on Tuesday evening as rain and thunderstorm chances ramp up. The severe weather threat is low, but heavy downpours could lead to some localized flooding. - Cooldown Ahead: Get the jackets ready for the end of the week. A passing front will drop our temperatures, leaving us with lows in the 40s for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1159 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2026 A bit of a dreary morning as we kick off November across Central Alabama. This morning has featured low level stratus and batches of light rain/drizzle at times. Over the last several hours, we have seen the heaviest rainfall over North Alabama, where we have seen nearly 6" of rain. Latest hi-res guidance suggests this activity will fill in a bit more through the day as we reach peak heating. However, the bulk of today's action will stay north of us, closer to the passing upper level shortwave. This activity will wane this evening as the shortwave lifts northeast as upper level ridging briefly nudges into the region. Chances for showers and storms will return to the forecast Tuesday evening as moisture pools ahead of our next system. A stout upper level trough will lift across the Plains towards the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, an associated surface low will kick a cold front our way by mid week. Look for breezy conditions ahead of this front with gusts from 20-30 MPH likely. A line of showers and storms ahead of this front will head our way Tuesday evening. Latest guidance suggests this activity will be losing steam by the time it arrives across Central Alabama. While instability will be limited, roughly 30 knots of shear would support a couple of isolated thunderstorms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. There is potential for this system to turn into a flooding event for northwest portions of Central Alabama. As the line of showers and storms pulls away from its support, it will slow down as it moves across the Southeast. A healthy plume of PWATs and a developing ~40 knot H85 LLJ will help support periods of heavy rainfall. Latest probabilities suggest a 50-60% chance of seeing at least 2" of rain across our northwestern counties overnight Tuesday through Wednesday. Activity will gradually come to an end Wednesday evening with some wrap around showers possible on Thursday. Another cold front pushes through the region on Friday. We aren't expecting much in the way of precip with this one as our moisture will be limited. A nice shot of cooler air will accompany this boundary with lows dropping back into the low to mid 40s next weekend. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2026 MVFR conditions will persist for most for much of tonight and for some until as late as 16z for conditions to improve to VFR. Easterly winds are expected to remain up for many through most of the TAF period with some gusts possible in the morning. Very low rain chances are in place this evening, but they are too low to mention in the TAFs as the system will be exiting with precip mainly north of terminals. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRHs remain well above critical thresholds over the coming days. Showers are likely to continue through this evening before we briefly dry out Monday and Tuesday. Rain returns to the forecast Tuesday evening. Easterly winds will gust near 20 MPH at times, generally during the afternoon hours, through mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 52 76 57 78 / 20 10 0 0 Anniston 54 76 59 78 / 20 10 0 0 Birmingham 55 7561 77 / 20 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 57 77 62 79 / 20 10 0 10 Calera 57 75 61 77 / 20 10 0 10 Auburn 57 76 61 77 / 10 10 0 0 Montgomery 58 79 63 80 / 10 10 0 10 Troy 57 77 61 79 / 10 10 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...08