FXUS64 KHUN 012350 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 550 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 230 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 - Light rain will continue through the afternoon, before tapering off this evening - Medium to high chances (40-90%) for showers and a few thunderstorms will return during the middle part of this week as another front moves through the region. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Rain is slowly tapering off, but medium chances for light showers will still persist through the remainder of the day as a shortwave trough departs the Tennessee Valley. Low clouds and drizzle will still linger this evening even as the showers dissipate late this afternoon. With a stout inversion in place, low stratus will persist through the night. This dense cloud cover will mean that temperatures won't budge much, with lows remaining in the mid 50s in most locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 926 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 A ridge axis over the northern Gulf will build back into the area Monday and Tuesday. This feature and breezy southerly winds will advect in and maintain a warm, moist air mass into the Tennessee Valley. Despite the cloud cover, enough breaks will allow for enough heating to warm highs into the low to mid 70s. An approaching trough/front from the west will attempt to nose its way into the region late Tuesday afternoon/evening, but with timing trending a little later, think we'll remain dry through 00z. More on the higher rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday in the section below. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 We could get some isolated showers or thunderstorms develop as early as Tuesday evening as the longwave trough axis and associated surface front push east into eastern Arkansas/western Mississippi. Better chances for rain look to develop overnight into Wednesday morning over northwestern Alabama. This still looks to be a heavy rainfall event given several aspects of the evolution of this storm system. Overall surface based instability will be very hard to get and 0-6 km bulk shear does not look quite as strong as a few days ago. However, PWATS will be high for this time of year (1.5 to 1.65 inches). Also, during the day on Wednesday as the front moves closer to the area, upper level diffluence will be strong west of the I-65 corridor and we will be in the right entrance region of the upper level jet. Also, a 40 knot 850 jet will be over the area as well. This all points to very strong/deep lift that will be in place, maybe primarily over areas west of the I-65 corridor into northeastern Mississippi. One to three inches of rainfall with locally up to 4 inches looks possible in those areas. It does look like there will be a decent drop off in rainfall totals near and east of the I-65 corridor (maybe not even over 1 inch). A few models are hinting that higher amounts over 5 inches could be possible in NW Alabama through Wednesday evening. One of the main reasons this setup may occur is the stoutness of the upper ridge just off the coast of the Carolinas and Virginia. The upper low butts heads with this feature during that period before finally moving northward over it late Wednesday night into Thursday, taking precipitation northward with it. Wednesday should be cooler again with clouds and precipitation expected. Highs will only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Not much change into Friday with lingering cloud cover as the upper low continues to move northeast into the central Great Lakes region. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 549 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 VFR to MVFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with lowered ceilings. Wind shear has been included at KHSV with 35 kts of southeasterly shear at 2000ft. Additionally, gusty sfc winds up to 15-18 kts have been left in the TAF for now but will be decreased if gusts are not realized within the next 1-2 hours as winds may be overdone. Clouds will prevent fog formation overnight. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....AMP LONG TERM....KTW AVIATION...HC