FXUS64 KLUB 011741 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1141 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1108 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 - Fog continues through this morning, mainly on the Caprock. - Storm chances return late Sunday night through Monday morning, primarily across the far southwest Panhandle and northern South Plains. Some storms may be severe. - Breezy westerly winds remain expected on Monday, with gusts up to 45 mph possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Skies have finally cleared out over a majority of the forecast area. This however looks to be short-lived as forecast soundings indicate full saturation below 850 mb overspreading the area in the hours before sunrise. As such, areas of fog and low cloud cover are expected, with areas on the Caprock seeing the highest potential for reduced visibilities. Use caution if traveling. Despite an upper ridge, clouds will remain trapped under an low-level inversion through the day. Slightly more elevated southerly winds around 15 mph and height rises from the aforementioned ridge will push highs generally in the low 70s. Precipitation is not expected outside of some possible drizzle. A deep trough will track across the west Sunday and will displace the ridge from having the majority of the influence later Sunday evening. Associated showers and thunderstorms will reach the far southwest Panhandle before quickly tracking across northern portions of the area Monday morning. The overall timing generally does not favor severe weather, however with modest CAPE and shear, severe storms cannot be completely ruled out along with a non- zero tornado potential. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The aforementioned storms should be quite fast moving with subsequent fast steering flow. The dryline looks to move completely east of the forecast area by the afternoon hours. If it slows down at all, a few storms could develop off the far eastern Caprock. The main concern however for Monday afternoon remains the breezy westerly winds. There are two closed lows that will develop in the lee of the Rockies. The stronger of which will be well to the north, reaching South Dakota. The southern low is slightly more disorganized and not as compact. Thus it is not the best setup for the very strong wind events we see here mostly in the winter. That said, winds aloft will be favorable to mix down with surface gusts potentially reaching 45 mph. Winds will diminish overnight into Tuesday and gradually turn more northerly behind a surface cold front. Highs Tuesday will fall into the low-to-mid 60s although the cooler dry air will allow for skies to clear. A few weak disturbances will move around our area through the remainder of the week, however no precipitation chances are expected at this time. Highs will remain slightly below average, generally in the mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Friendly reminder that Central Time Zone is now on standard time: UTC-6. Not a great flying day for private GA flying. Stratus is expected to hang around at least until mid afternoon before scattering out. Winds will be on the increase and a period of IFR looks likely early this evening before seeing the potential for a few rounds of thunderstorms mainly after midnight local. This is a rather strong system and I suspect the turbulence associated with the passing waves will be less than ideal. Mixed data exist on whether we'll see flight conditions improving right with the first thunderstorm potential or after they've made it through by around sunrise. These systems often come early, so it wouldn't be surprising, in later TAF cycles, to see the timing advance. A rather strong cold front will enter the picture fairly close to 02/18Z. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...26