FXUS64 KMEG 012316 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 516 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 516 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 - After a brief break from the rain on Monday, showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast for the second half of Tuesday into Wednesday. Total rainfall amounts will generally be between 1 to 2 inches. - A secondary cold front will arrive late this week with much cooler air expected. Highs are anticipated to be mainly in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to 40s. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 This morning's upper air analysis featured a southern stream mid- level trough moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Regional WSR-88D radar trends showed some lingering rain showers mainly over north Mississippi late this morning, with other areas mostly rain free at this time. Temperatures ranged from the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Rain showers will continue to diminish into this afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave trough departs the Mid-South and shortwave ridging builds into the area. Highs this afternoon will range from the lower 70s across portions of east Arkansas and northwest Mississippi to the lower 60s over northwest Tennessee. Rain free weather will continue through Monday night across the area with temperatures rising back into the 70s into Tuesday as warm air advection returns to the region. Short-term model trends continue to show the Pacific Coast upper- level trough ejecting into the Central and Southern Plains by Monday night and deepening as it moves through the Mississippi Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. Model consensus still shows the best timing for onset of showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South occurring late Tuesday afternoon west of the Mississippi River, then spreading east across the remainder of the area Tuesday night. Despite favorable shear, mid-level height falls, and upper-level forcing present, a lack of quality instability is expected to limit the overall strong to severe thunderstorm potential as a cold front moves through the area and instability decreases with the loss of diurnal heating. Much of the model guidance including the RRFS shows instability being pinched off as the system occludes across the region. LREF probabilities of surface-based CAPE values of at least 500 J/kg, and 30 kts of shear remains at 10-15% at best over portions of east Arkansas south of I-40 and portions of northwest Mississippi. NBM probabilities for 48 hour rainfall show a high chance (70-100%) for most locations receiving around an inch of rain, and a medium chance (40-60%) for some areas east of the Mississippi River receiving at least 2 inches. High pressure will gradually build back into the Mid-South Wednesday through Thursday night with long range ensembles showing an additional upper-level trough and secondary cold front rotating through the region. Temperatures behind this secondary front will be much cooler with highs mainly in the 60s next weekend with lows in the upper 30s to 40s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 516 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Restrictive flight conditions will persist overnight, characterized by IFR ceilings and light drizzle. Brief reductions to LIFR cannot be ruled out at JBR, though probability remains too low for inclusion in TAF. Winds will remain elevated overnight and begin gusting to 20 kts by midmorning Monday. MVFR ceilings will be in place by Monday afternoon with a few areas clearing to VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minimum relative humidity values will remain well above 40% through the upcoming week. High pressure will build back through Tuesday morning, with shower and thunderstorm chances returning for later Tuesday into Wednesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...ANS