FXUS64 KMOB 011831 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1231 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1225 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 - Increased rain chances continue today. Most areas can expect 0.75" or less of rain, though isolated totals of 3" to 4” are possible. - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through early next week. Surf heights increase to near 5 feet today, with rough surf expected. - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1225 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Now through Monday night, a weakly organized shortwave trough moves slowly off. This system continues to be disorganized with upper dynamics well east of the good instability over Mississippi. A pool of cooler air over eastern portions of the forecast area is limiting any instability, much less surface based. Guidance is advertising instability increasing forecast area wide through the afternoon hours area-wide. Looking at the hodographs, the increase in surface based instability is expected to be limited and more confined to the sounding well above the surface. Over open Gulf waters, more surfaced based instability and strong to severe storms are possible. Over land, guidance shows stronger northerly winds in the mid levels moving over the forecast area. The soundings show the disorganization, with southeasterly flow in the lower levels, but northeast to northerly in the mid and upper levels. Not conducive to organized storms. Also, the sounding profile is pretty moist, with limited mid/upper level dry layers to enhance any downdrafts. Will still need to monitor. The biggest issue this afternoon into tonight is, with the overall slow movement of the storms, is the possibility of localized pools of cooler air setting up, providing localized focusing of precipitation formation. The risk is small, but definitely non-zero, especially near the cool pool over eastern portions of the forecast area. Looking at temperatures, after today, some rebounding in high temperatures is expected Monday, with upper 70s to low 80s expected. With no appreciable influx of a cooler airmass, low temperatures in the low to mid 60s are expected, especially as an upper ridge moves east of the Mississippi River late Monday into Monday night. Tuesday through Wednesday night, a deep upper level shortwave trough moves from over the Plains over the Mississippi River to the eastern Conus. There is indications of the trough becoming a bit negatively tilted as the base moves over the Lower Mississippi River to over the Southeast Wednesday into Wednesday night. Enhancement of any lower/mid level jets due to this is indicated to be well north of the forecast area, closer to the Tennessee River Valley. Advertised instability is modest, with SBCapes in the 1000-1500J/kg range. Mid level height drops as the upper trough is also modest over the northern Gulf coast Wednesday into Wednesday night. All in all, the best combination of ingredients is advertised being well north of the forecast area. There has been, and continues to be, inconsistencies in path and timing of the upper trough, though, as the upper trough pushes east again the upper ridge that has moved over the eastern Conus. Will continue to monitor. A cold front of inconsistent timing and strength is expected to cross the forecast area late Wednesday through Wednesday night. Temperatures above seasonal norms are expected ahead of front passage, dropping to below seasonal norms behind. Taking a look at coastal areas, a High Risk of rip currents is maintained Tuesday, before decreasing to Moderate Wednesday into Thursday aseast to southeast flow decreases and tidal cycle heads towards a neap tide. /16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Scattered to potentially numerous showers, with the highest coverage east of I-65, are expected this afternoon, then dry conditions develop early this evening and continue through Monday morning. Predominately MVFR ceilings this afternoon lower to IFR/MVFR this evening then return to mostly MVFR Monday morning. Easterly to northeasterly winds 5-10 knots, a bit higher near the coast, prevail through the period. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1225 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 A moderate to strong easterly flow will continue into the coming week. Winds will shift to southeasterly Tuesday into Tuesday night as a system approaches the area from the west. Winds gradually decrease and turn onshore by mid-week after the systems passage. Seas will build to 5-7 feet today and will gradually decrease throughout the upcoming week. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 65 79 66 80 / 10 0 0 20 Pensacola 66 79 68 79 / 20 0 0 10 Destin 66 80 68 80 / 20 0 0 10 Evergreen 59 78 61 79 / 10 0 0 10 Waynesboro 61 79 62 80 / 10 0 0 10 Camden 58 77 62 77 / 10 0 0 10 Crestview 60 81 62 82 / 20 10 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670- 675. && $$