FXUS64 KMRX 011850

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

150 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026



...New DISCUSSION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 143 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026



- Chances for light rain showers continue this afternoon and 

  overnight, majority of the area stays dry though. 



- Breezy mountain winds continue through midweek. 



- Dry and above normal temperatures Monday through Tuesday.



- Increasing chances of rain again with a midweek system.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 143 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026



Light showers remain ongoing across portions of the area and

continue overnight. The best chances for rain remain across the 

Cumberland Plataea and southern TN Valley. Amounts less than one 

tenth are expected for areas that do see rain. Elsewhere, mostly 

dry conditions are in place outside of a few passing sprinkles, 

due to the dry air at the surface. Downsloping winds across the 

east TN mountains are keeping areas east of I-75 mostly dry. 

Additionally, mountaintop winds will remain breezy due to a 

persistent, southeast, 850mb jet of around 30kts. Our highest 

elevations, such as Cove Mountain, will continue to see gusts 

between 30 and 40 mph through Monday morning.





To start the week, high pressure is anchored in place across the 

Coastal Carolinas. Meanwhile, an upper trough will slowly advance 

toward the region through Wednesday. This setup will allow for an 

increased pressure gradient to remain in place across the region, 

and therefore an increased 850 mb jet of around 30 to 40 kts. This 

means mountaintop winds will continue to be breezy through 

midweek. Cove Mountain may occasionally gust to 40 mph, or 

slightly above, but non-advisory gusts are mostly expected. High 

pressure will also help to keep us dry until Wednesday's frontal 

boundary moves into the area. We can also expect above normal 

temperatures due to rising heights with highs in the mid to upper

70s, which is around 10 degrees above normal. This puts us only a

few degrees below our record highs for this time of year, which 

are in the lower 80s.



Chances for rain increase on Wednesday as a frontal boundary moves 

through the area. Chances for rain remain in place through Thursday 

due to the slow moving boundary. During this time, storm-total 

rainfall amounts will generally range around 1 to 1.25 inches for 

the Cumberland Plateau, central and southern TN Valley, and 

southwest NC. The eastern foothills, northeast TN, and southwest 

VA will see amounts closer to 0.5 to 1 inch. 



We begin to dry out on Friday behind the front with dry 

conditions continuing into the weekend. This also means cooler 

temperatures, with current forecast highs over the weekend in low 

to mid 60s. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1248 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026



VFR conditions and light winds of less than 10kts are forecast at

all sites through the period. There is low chance that CHA could

see MVFR ceilings overnight but not great enough to mention in 

TAFS. Downsloping winds off the east TN mountains should keep 

ceilings elevated at TYS and TRI. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             54  73  57  77 /  10   0   0   0 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  53  75  51  80 /  20  10   0   0 

Oak Ridge, TN                       51  73  51  78 /  20  10   0   0 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              51  71  47  78 /  10  10   0   0 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...99

AVIATION...99